By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
Presidential Stakes 2010 came to an official end when Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake announced the winner in Sri Lanka’s sixth Presidential election.
Incumbent Executive President Mahinda Rajapakse registered a stunning victory by polling 6,015,934 votes(57.88%).Former Army commander retired General Sarath Fonseka, his chief challenger got 4,173,185 or 40.15% of the votes.
The other twenty candidates including three who had withdrawn unofficially fared badly. None of them polled a six digit figure and all of them lost their deposits.
While President Rajapakse’s winning margin of 1. 842,749 (17.73 %) is indeed impressive the remarkable result has been tarnished somewhat due to charges of intimidatory violence, flagrant abuse and misuse of Government machinery particularly the state-owned media and alleged vote rigging.
These accusations made by opposition parties, election monitoring NGO’s and media and human rights activists have naturally been denied strongly by Govt circles.
Annulment
The chief opposition candidate Sarath Fonseka has asked for an annulment of the poll on these grounds. He has announced he will go to courts seeking legal remedy.
According to Fonseka it was he who should have won by a majority of 1.4 million votes. Anticipating that the govt has tampered with polling and counting thus rigging the result in Rajapakse’s favour by 1.8 million, alleges the retired general.
Addressing a press conference the defeated candidate was bristling. He said he was not prepared to accept the results declared by the Commissioner of Elections and would take appropriate legal action to get the results annulled.
Earlier in a letter addressed to the Commissioner of Elections Dayanada Dissanayake Gen. Fonseka requested him not to declare the official result until the legal proceedings are over. It was not acceded to.
According to a news report in “Daily Mirror” General Fonseka outlined 10 points as to why he suspected the results were fraudulent. .The ten points included allegations of various malpractices committed during the election including change of ballot boxes, intimidatory and defamatory pronouncements over the state media, misuse of state resources and funds, misuse of “Temple Trees” the official residence of the head of state etc.
He said state officers succumbed to pressure of the politicians and therefore did not act independently during the election period. He also said police service was dominated by corrupt law makers since the government did not appoint the independent Police Commission.
“The state media abused their authority and misused the same making a series of false allegations,” Fonseka said. He also alleged that that the IDPs in the North were prevented from voting.
General Fonseka also claimed that he had received more than 5 million votes though the results announced by the government showed he had only obtained 4.1 million votes. He said he was informed by some officials of the Elections Department that he had won 12 districts shortly after mid night but the final result was suspiciously different.
While thanking those who voted for him he assured the people that he would be there for them and fulfill their dreams by being in the opposition.
Security
He complained bitterly that his security had been slashed from 70 to just 4 Policemen.
With regard to his security he said 70 security personnel who were providing him security had been recalled by the government. He said he had 30 men retired from the army legally. They were his paid security personnel.
General Fonseka said the government would have to bear responsibility for his life in case of any “unfortunate eventuality.”
The ex-army chief said he had sought the support of the international community through foreign missions here with regard to his security.
He indicated that streets protests would be organized to protest against what he called violation of people’s right of franchise in the near future.
Unacceptable
Other parties supporting Fonseka like the JVP and SLFP (M) have also condemned the poll and declared the result unacceptable.
While there is some basis to the opposition charge that the poll was not free and fair the sheer size of the winning majority undermines to some extent the validity of the claim.
Against the backdrop of such a large majority the opposition has to prove that rigging of massive proportions has been done to make the charges stick.
There is no doubt that some fraudulent methods have been practised in the election. There are those who read a lot of “nuances” into the Elections Commissioner’s address and argue that Dissanayake is subtly “telling without telling” (Nokiyakiyanna)us that electoral malpractices have been perpetrated.
Had the result been a close call, these allegations may have been treated more seriously, but the huge majority garnered by Rajapakse has reduced their potency considerably.
It is indeed a fact that the government machinery was utilised on behalf of President Rajapakse in this poll. Government officials and army officers were openly working for Rajapakse. Serving diplomats were in Colombo canvassing for the President. “Temple Trees” was a perpetual “dansala” for Govt employees and special interest groups. The Host was lavish in his hospitality and generous in doling out food and beverages.
The State media particularly TV and Radio displayed crude partisanship never witnessed before in a presidential contest. President Rajapakse virtually hogged the limelight and publicity. The other candidates particularly Sarath Fonseka were treated like stepchildren of stepchildren. A near total black-out!
Violence
There were also several acts of violence. Of course both sides were responsible but it was obvious that the lion’s share belonged to the Rajapakse regime.
A case in point about how violence or threat of violence was used to intimidate potential voters was seen in the North. In the Jaffna peninsula there were at least thirteen hand bomb and/or grenade explosions in different places. Even a few shells were fired in the Gurunagar area.
These explosions were aimed at terrorising the civilian population from voting in large numbers. In May 1983 the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam(LTTE) adopted the same tactic during the local authority elections.
After bumping off a few UNP candidates during the campaign the LTTE exploded a few bombs around dawn on Election day (May 18th). The people got the message. Most kept away from voting. Later in the afternoon the LTTE attacked and killed a soldier guarding a polling booth.
When the results were announced it was obvious that voting was extremely low. The Jaffna Municipal Council election had 15% voting. The three Urban Council figures too were very poor. Chavakachcheri had 14%, Valvettithurai 7% and Paruthithurai (Point Pedro) 8%.
Similarly the calculated explosions in the early hours of Presidential election day delivered an effective message to the Jaffna voter. Thus the polling was not high as expected. It was a foregone conclusion that the majority of Jaffna voters were supportive of Sarath Fonseka.
So it was not hard to view the explosions as being favourable to Rajapakse. Besides who can cause explosions and get away without being apprehended in a Jaffna cleansed of tigers?
Then there is also the allegation of vote rigging. Given the flagrant abuse and misuse of government machinery by the Rajapakse regime in electioneering some amount or kind of vote tampering cannot be ruled out
Rumpus
Besides it is common knowledge that some “rigging” is always prevalent in Sri Lankan elections. It goes with the territory.
At the same time politics being what it is the losing side cannot simply accept it as being in the nature of things and keep mum. The losers will always kick up a rumpus and the winners will always deny the charges.
The point I am trying to emphasise here is that I do concur with the opposition charge that violence, abuse of state machinery including media and vote rigging has taken place.
Where I differ is that I don’t think these acts of omission and commission were “enough” to warrant a total negation of the result and annulment of poll.
It has been my experience that a complete transformation of an election result through fraudulence is possible only when the competition is close. In such instances the result can be tipped in favour of a particular candidate through procurement of a few thousand votes by stuffing and rigging.
It is however extremely difficult to influence a decision in favour of a candidate with a massive majority such as the one gained by Mahinda Rajapakse. Such an exercise involves rigging of greater proportions.
Which is why it is difficult to buy Fonseka’s argument that he should have won by more than a million votes whereas Rajapakse has won with nearly two million votes through alleged vote rigging. Such a huge “fraud” does not seem possible.
For such a thing to have happened there should have been colossal vote tampering. In fairness to Rajapakse no independent or outside agency has alleged so far that the entire result was due to rigging and that Fonseka was the rightful winner. From elections monitoring NGO’s to the UN Secretary-General various violations and offences have been pinpointed but the whole election exercise is yet to be faulted totally.
Since a large volume of election offences or fraudulent practices have not been recorded at the time of polling , accusations are now being levelled at the central level.
Results
It is now alleged that some form of “Control” was exerted over the Elections department and that the results were changed via sophisticated means. The “computer” as in India is accused of being the culprit.
What is being alleged that a gigantic, sophisticated exercise in duplicity was perpetrated through manipulating the computerized figures. This again is a familiar feature in India where “computerization” is often blamed by losers as the scapegoat for their defeat.
The argument that such a huge majority cannot be garnered through fraudulent practices alone and that there has been a groundswell of support for Rajapakse is countered by contesting the nature of that majority itself. Past results are compared and arithmetical calculations are based on those.
Thereafter it is said according to assessments made arithmetically, Rajapakse could not have got such a thumping majority. Therefore gigantic frauds have taken place is the assertion.
What has been lost sight of is the algebra of politics. PPolitical performances cannot be gauged arithmetically alone. All things are not constants and there are a lot of variables.
Once again I must emphasise that I do not deny some malpractices have taken place. But again I reject the argument that such malpractices are the sole reason for Mahinda’s majority.
The fact that Rajapakse did reap a harvest of genuine votes cannot be disputed. The alleged malpractices may have enhanced his majority but do not constitute it in entirety. Also these malpractices are not enough to warrant negation of the result.
However the opposition and the chief challenger are well within their rights to challenge the outcome and seek annulment on the grounds that the result was effected through electoral malpractice requiring disqualification.
Credible
But the onus is on the opposition to provide sufficient, credible proof. Mere accusations are not enough.
To cite a recent example the Govt has officially announced the death of LTTE leader Veluppillai Prabhakaran and said his body has been cremated. There is however a large school of thought which refuses to believe this and argues that the tiger supremo is alive.
These sections pose the question “Show us the body if he is really dead”? Now this is a ridiculous rhetorical argument. The onus is not on those who say Prabhakara is dead to produce his body.
The onus is actually on those who say he is alive to prove so. The simplest way is for the man to display himself publicly if indeed he is among the living.
Likewise if the opposition is certain that an enormous electoral fraud has been committed and that Mahinda Rajapakse did not really win the onus is on the opposition to prove it.
Of course it can be argued that it would be difficult to acquire credible proof. True enough.
But then until such proof is furnished or a credible charge on a factual basis can be framed these allegations can only remain allegations. They cannot be regarded as convictions.
Given the manner in which the International community from the USA to India are welcoming the result it does seem that despite the protests by the opposition the world at large is beginning to accept the result as permanent notwithstanding defects. It is also a moment of truth for Sarath Fonseka though I doubt whether those around him would let him recognize reality so easily.
Winner
Nevertheless the bitter election campaign that divided the nation deeply indicates that there will be much heat on the question of whether the election was fraudulent or not for a long time.
Both sides will keep on harping on the issue and doubts would be cast on the credibility of the election. But as far as Rajapakse is concerned he is the winner.
The Rajapakses belong to the “end justifies the means” school of thought. So far this philosophy has worked well for the brethren.
What then lies behind the magic of Mahinda Rajapakse’s magnificient victory?
Mahinda Rajapakse who was previously elected on Nov 17th 2005 had two more years to complete in his first term.
The President cut short his term of six years in a shrewd political move to cash in on the popularity accrued due to the military defeat inflicted by the armed forces on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)last May.
Expediting the election seemed a very bright idea until the emergence of the Fonseka factor. The ex-army chief praised widely as a brilliant commander too began nursing ambitions of being president on the strength of this military success for which he claimed sole credit.
His entry electrified the 2010 Presidential stakes. What was seen as a one-horse race turned into a two-horse competition. In a remarkable turn of events diametrically opposite parties rallied around Fonseka’s candidacy.
War Hero
To adapt Shakespeare in “Julius Caesar” it was a case of these parties drawing separately to strike jointly.
Their motivation was not love of Fonseka but hatred towards Rajapakse. “Not that they hated Sarath less but they hated Mahinda more”.
Politically they felt that only a “war hero” like the General could take on the president. Fire was to be fought with fire and a diamond cut by another.
It was like a group of schoolboys long hectored by the classroom bully deciding to pool their resources and hire the “Gamey chandiya” (village thug) to take on the bully.
Many of these seasoned politicians were prepared to cheer on a political novice as their champion knight. Some would unkindly describe it as preparing a lamb for the slaughter.
With a cross section of opposition parties ranging from the right of centre United National Party(UNP) to Ultra –left Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna(JVP) and minority community parties like the Tamil National Alliance(TNA) and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC)backing Fonseka the race was perceived as being neck to neck.
Initially the electoral battle was all about who deserved the greater share of laurels for the magnificient military victory. Essentially it was a tussle for credit.
It was like a school debate “Who deserves the credit for the victory over the LTTE: Rajapakse or Fonseka”?
Re-positioned
Later with opposition party backing, Fonseka re-positioned himself as a candidate for believable change.His campaign aimed at exploiting sub-terranean resentment against the Rajapakse regime on account of alleged corruption, nepotism and abuse of power.
With unprecedented crowds flocking to see and hear Fonseka his camp was optimistic of edging out Rajapakse. Regime change was apparently on the cards.
The Rajapakse campaign countered this demand for change by re-iterating the need for continuity and stability and spotlighting the incumbent’s political experience and accomplishments.
Mahinda who often reminds people that he is “hondata hondai and narakata narakai” (good to the good and bad to the bad)geared up for a political fight to the finish.
A disturbing feature of this election campaign was the disgraceful depths to which it descended in character assassination and personal vilification. All sorts of complaints and falsehoods were heaped on one side by the other.
President Rajapakse adroitly took up the moral high ground and refrained from personal attacks against his chief opponent. But many of his minions launched vulgar tirades capable of making Billingsgate denizens blush. Unsubstantiated personal attacks of a vicious nature were levelled against the General.
It was indeed pathetic to see the “Lion of Ambalangoda” being reduced to a state where any Jackal. Coyote or Hyena could take an abusive nip. It was as if open season had been declared on the Swan. In the process the war hero was being transformed into political zero.
To make matters worse, Sarath Fonseka began resorting to harsh usage of words in his speeches and media interviews.Talking tough with choice phrases would have been tolerated in a military General but not in a Presidential aspirant. He carried his heart not on his sleeve but on his tongue.
Animosity
Fonseka just could not play the part of an aggrieved soldier properly. His animosity towards his bete noir Gotabhaya Rajapakse and by extension the Medamulana clan often showed in his utterances.
This did not go down well with the electorate.
Another aspect was the agent of change himself. Fonseka backed by the opposition parties advocated a break from the unsavory features of the Rajapakse regime.
Widespread corruption, high levels of nepotism and flagrant abuse and misuse of power were the allegations against the regime described as comprising a close family clique.
Sarath Fonseka on the other hand was projected as an apolitical person with a puritan military background. He was to be the new,clean broom which would sweep out all the old dirt and purify society and government because of his fresh innocence. Besides his military background was a plus point in term of being able to enforce discipline
Charges
But all this went wrong when the Rajapakse propaganda and counter-propaganda team got into action. Charges of corruption were implied by the targeting of Fonsek’’s son in law who was accused of running an arms dealing firm by proxy.
Fonseka was accused of using his influence to hand out lucrative contracts to that firm.
Fonseka of course denied these allegations and trotted out an explanation in his defence. Whether these charges were true or false was not the question. As I have often stated in these columns perception is at times more important than reality in politics.
What happened was that Fonseka’s image as “Mr.Clean” was damaged badly. The charge about his involvement in his son in law’s enterprise implicated Fonseka in nepotism, corruption and abuse of power. In one stroke the moral high ground held by him vis-a-vis Rajapakse was lost.
Another important point was the war hero image itself. If that was the important criterion in being backed as a counterfoil to Rajapakse that advantage was soon diluted.
The fact that politicians depicted as being critical of the armed forces were backing him caused a dent in this image. What was a war hero doing with this motley crew? was the unanswered question.
Support
Fonseka also began losing support within the armed forces. At one stage the Rajapakse govt was rattled by the support and goodwill within the army for the ex- commander. An intelligence report put it as 75 – 80 % within the rank and file and around 40 % among officers particularly those within the captain to colonel ranks.
As time progressed this support base began withering. At one level carefully staged transfers and re-assignments within the military structure ensured that suspected Fonseka loyalists were not in positions of influence.
On another level military discipline norms were flouted by the unorthodox step of getting serving officers give media interviews. These interviews had a sub-text of diminishing Fonseka and extolling the virtues of Rajapakse.
But, Fonseka himself queered the pitch further for himself by his public pronouncements. The General was at times a loose cannon firing off blindly.
His antipathy towards the Defence secretary and Army commander was so great that he began publicly attacking them. In that mood ,Fonseka started making statements he should not have made. Realising his blunders he tried to retract but the damage was done.
Traitor
Due to this combination of factors the brilliant army commander who spearheaded the victorious offensive against the LTTE was portrayed as a traitor. One of the easiest things in Sri Lanka, both in Sinhala and Tamil politics is to depict someone as a traitor.
This flimsy, irresponsible charge of treachery is what destroyed the Tamil polity. It was now being used in Sinhala politics particularly against People like Ranil Wickremasinghe and Mangala Samaraweera.
Now Fonseka too was being tarred by the same brush. He was deemed guilty by association and also doomed himself through some inadvertent remarks.
Fonseka’s stock also began falling due to his penchant for making promises and pledges. The veterans around him did not advise him properly or provided wrong advice.
As a result Fonseka seemed to think that politics was all about making promises. The rate that he was dishing out promises made the electorate suspicious about the man. In trying to please each and every segment through extravagant, impractical promises Fonseka lowered his credibility
Kiss of Death
The turning point however was the “kiss of death” bestowed by the Tamil National Alliance. The TNA consists of an assortment of Tamil politicians perceived for long as the bonded slaves of the tigers.
Douglas Devananda was fond of describing the TNA as Tiger Nominated Agents. The TNA which betrayed the Tamil people by playing second fiddle to the LTTE when the tigers were at their zenith, lost its moorings after May 2009.
Now the TNA is trying to distance itself from the unsavoury past and is re-configuring its discredited politics. Sadly for the TNA the nation at large particularly the Sinhala constituency still perceives the TNA as a “tiger in a cowhide”.
When the Presidential election was announced and the Fonseka campaign began gathering mometum the Western media started saying it was going to be a close fight.
The Sinhala vote was going to be more or less evenly divided stated these western media pundits.As such the Tamil vote was going to decide the outcome was the essence of thee half-baked assessments.The TNA was dscribed as the “king-maker”.
Unfortunately there were many who believed this particularly within the Tamil Diaspora. A whole lot of vocal warriors (Vaaichol verargal) started writing and talking about how the Tamils were going to decide which Sinhalese would rule Sri Lanka.
Though the LTTE was defeated the Tamils had now divided the victors and were making them mendicants in search of Tamil votes it was trumpeted.
Had the TNA remained neutral in this election the situation may have been different. But when the Sambandan-Senathirajah-Suresh Premachandran triumvirate aligned the TNA with Sarath Fonseka openly it was a recipe for disaster.
Interestingly enough the Government too was wooing the TNA and a few TNA Parliamentarians were supporting it on an individual basis. Had the TNA opted as a party to support Mahinda Rajapakse then the Govt would have accepted it and helped “sanitise” the party in the eyes of the Sinhalese.
The opposition would have been divided on the TNA and compelled to remain silent as except for the JVP other parties like UNP, SLMC, DWC and SLFP (M) could not have objected publicly.
Campaign
But when the TNA blundered by hitching their wagon to the Fonseka star the very same Rajapakse who had ardently solicited its support suddenly changed track.
A campaign was launched against Fonseka on the basis that there was a secret agreement with the TNA that was a sell-out of the Sinhalese.
This in turn would lead to a renaissance of the LTTE and pose a threat to the unity and territorial integrity of the country was the line followed
When the TNA, Fonseka and his allies denied the existence of such an agreement and said that there was only a general understanding and not even a verbal accord , that explanation was viewed with disbelief.
Given the past history of Sinhala-Tamil agreements there were few takers for this apparent “Gentleman’s understanding.”
And then Mahinda in a masterstroke demolished the Fonseka camp on this issue deftly.
He began saying that the TNA had made certain demands as the price for Tamil support. But he could not agree because some of the demands were unacceptable as they were detrimental to the country and nation.
He (Mahinda) would never betray Sri Lanka and its people for the sake of a few votes.
By this assertion Rajapakse conveyed the impression that the TNA rebuffed by him had extended support to Fonseka because unlike the President, the General had acceded to those demands posing a danger and threat to the Country.
Responsibility
This argument cleverly placed a responsibility indirectly on the Sinhala voter.
Here was Mahinda losing the Tamil vote because he refused to betray the nation.Here was Fonseka about to win because he had obtained support from the TNA because he had apparently agreed to what Mahinda rejected
Against that backdrop was it not the duty of the majority community to stand by the man who had risked defeat by remaining faithful to the nation and people?
Was it not the sacred duty of the people to compensate Mahinda’s loss of Tamil votes by rewarding him amply with Sinhala votes? ~ (TO BE CONTINUED NEXT WEEK) ~
DBS Jeyaraj can be reached at dbsjeyaraj2005@yahoo.com
Fascinating article with lots of facts and well-reasoned articulation DBS
But as you pointed out rational analysis will be rejected. In polarised politics those who say polls were rigged and Fonseka was the real victor will continue to say so. No amount of truth will change their attitude. As usual some would say DBS bought over by Rajapakses
But dont let this deter yo
Co0ntinue as usual
Cant wait for the next instalment
Another superb dissection and analysis of the election. Thank you very much.
The people who bought the previous election for 180 mil were not going to let this go..
They were fearful even two weeks prior that they were going to lose. It is quite possible that they have gone to these extremes to rig the vote.
Why did they raid the office of SF? What are they afraid of?
Why did they block the internet sites just before the election?
Why did they deport the Swedish journalist?
DBSJ, can you explain why El/Com spoke so painfully? Why did they change the standard procedure of publishing the results? There were lot of abnormal things happened at this election.
This is swaping the results, No doubt.
DBS:
The good general should quit acting like a cry baby and act like the man he claim to be. He lost fair and square, barring the usual vote rigging, intimidation and other time tested electoral tactics that every governing party has employed in the past elections. As you have very clearly stated, these were not instrumental in deciding the election in MR’s favour.
As I commented in previous blogs, I was there during the month of December and seeing the whole show from the eye of an independent observer, one could see how Colombo crowd seems to be pretty oblivious to what was happening outside the cities. These people were all seduced by opinion polls, facebook entries and all kinds of responses and comments on the web and totally forgot that they were seeing the opinion of a very select relatively wealthy few with access to the web. I went round and talked to many people at the village level and as I said before, they were confused. On one hand they respected Fonseka but they knew in their mind who finished the war, which was the main point in this election. It was not the Colombo or Kandy kids that gave their lives in the fight against LTTE and it is to the small towns and villages that the dead solders were brought for their final rites. In their mind the issue of corruption that the opposition played up was not very significant. A confused electorate will always vote for the known and safe person and this time around Mahinda was that. I had people very close to me taking part in the Fonseka campaign at high levels (from Ananda Old Boys squad) and as I was leaving Sri Lanka few weeks before the elections, I told them that I have my doubts about their horse’s chances.
If Fonseka has any vision of competing in the coming parliamentary elections and providing any sort of real leadership to the opposition, he should cut out all this hysterical ramblings about how his victory was stolen, how he is under arrest in a hotel and how they are trying to assassinate him and get on with the job. Now he is talking about taking off to a foreign country temporarily. Does he understand what he is saying? These are the same countries that would be delighted to have him and then put him on a show trial for alleged human rights abuses of the Sri Lankan forces. The sooner he realizes that he has been taken for a real ride by the likes of Ranil and Mangala, better it is for him. He also need understand that while Sri Lankans are grateful to him for his brilliant service for to the country and the Army, they are not prepared to give him the highest office of the country just like that.
He has to prove himself as a civilian leader and if his actions during the last few days are taken as a standard, he is anything but.
10. Sri Lankan-American
“Realistic demands would also help. I was looking at the registered voters (SL Daily News, Jan 26) and in that 73.8% are Sinhala, 3.8% SL Tamils, 4.6% Indian Tamils, 7.2% Moors.”
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3.8% wow, thanks for pointing this out buddy. Even though there are so many non-registered voters not included in this calculation. In reality, down the road, the Tamil population would end up no more than 4% in the Island… As you said, based on this Tamils have to have realistic demand. What can Tamils demand; what ever the masters provide (or not provide anything) Tamils have to take it now! Do we have any other options available?
What a big lessons for us Tamils. Before the exiled Vijay arrived in Thevu, Illanki Thevu was 100% Tamil. Now even in Canada Tamils form about 1%, but in native Island, not even 4%. Is Sinhalese did this to us? Not at all, we Tamil did this to ourselves. When are we going to learn this reality, forget about our differences and unit?
Just remember Mahavamsa Sinhala friends, whatever the way pundits come up with and try to relate or link Sinhala with Sanskrit, Pali, Buddha, Bengali, Orrisa, Indo-European, what ever it is…. if you simply take Tamil vocabularies and Tamil cultural roots out of Sinhala, it will collapsed to the floor.
Well lets hope Year 2010 enlighten us all and bring good fortune to everyone includingTamils.
Will Rajabakse realise the ethnic diviosion in the pattern of voting and come to his senses to solve the long standing ethnic problem .
Mahinda is a politician with 40 years of experience and Fonseka was a military leader barking orders to people, That’s the difference. It was no brainer for the people to decide who they want as president. Unfortunately the opposition doesn’t grasp the reality.
Though its acceptable- Look it thru the negative angle. It was said in the election meetings that SF is joining the hands of TNA with a Speical agenda – assuring them a Mini Eelam..Demal minisu SF ta vote thahala EElam Genganna Innawa.- This would have caused a chaos on any rural voter who may have decided to vote for SF may have changed his/her mind. Voter turnout was that high, MR was able to win.
But Where is the Party with this victory .. Why are all silent. With this majority why everyone is keeping silent. Atleast some section would have started Like in May-09. Still this puzzles me
Dogs are barking. But moon will never cum down.
Stop this useless postmortems. India does not want to see a separate Tamil country in Sri Lanka. As long as they ar against with that, west will not be able to help Tamils to create a country. Because of the huge Indian market and friendship with India is more valuable for west more than giving separate state to Tamils. No use of talking. But useless Ranil’s leadership will not be able to get this much of votes if he face to this election. He do not want to prove that facing to coming parliament election. If UNP has decided to contest parliament election under Ranil’s leader ship it will be the end of his political carrier. So he want to keep Sarath Fonseka as a shield for coming election too. To keep the moral of his party member he has to organize this type of roomers and propagandas. We are not fools. “”Lipa gini molawana thek diya seliye”, “Sapayk yai kakuluwa diya keliye”. Let them dance for another couple of months.
Sri Lankans saw enough LTTE magic during last 30 years. Now LTTE sympathizers are watching a different type of magic. It is funny ha? Diasiaspora guys will see this type of magic throughout the life. Call homeless and stateless western supporters to see this magic. Or ask them to come back to Sri Lanka to stay here as a proud Sri Lankan.
I am not aware of computerization of counting and how much it is used in tabulation of the final results etc by SL Elections dept.
In India I guess the argument goes against ‘blaming on computerization’.
But in Sri Lanka?
What sort of transparency evidence is out there as to who has access and how this is all managed in Sri Lankan bureaucracy.
Makes me wonder if the Soldier turned, Systems Administrator turned Defense Secy bro tapped into one of acquaintances to ‘help out’.
Mahinda had allready express that there is no more minority in this country and all citizens have same rights any body can live any where in srilanka. And also He said that you all are my children I will male no difference to any body and take responsible for your lives and your children.
So what more Tamil people can expect. He have opened schools for northern and eastern children, they are receiving same treatment as others in Srilanka,Free Education and free Health care this is very rare in the world as I knew I live in a western Country.Mahinda had rehabilitate the under age child soilders and handed over to their parents. Roads are open, You can buy what ever you want in Jaffna cheeper than Colombo. People are happy in north and east.Sarath fonseka is lost the election. When some body cannot take the defeet,they bring all kinds of aligations. Sarath fonseka have to learn to speek and respect then only people will respect.
WOW! What an analytical mind. You never cease to amaze me. Looking forward to next weeks article. Same time saddened at the sorry state of affairs. The Tamils need an honest and courageous leader.
As a Tamil living in Nugegoda for so many years I have to agree with DBS about the YNA giving Sarath Fonseka the kiss of death
With that turn many Sinhalese people got worried and confused. So they backed Mahinda in a big way
Foolish Tamil Diaspora and ill-informed foreign media added to this fear by boasting that TNA was kingmaker
So what happened?
Ordinary Sinhalese people decided quietly to vote for Mahind which they did
It was a silent Tsunami
SF is not able to understand this
Had the TNA remained neutral in this election the situation may have been different. But when the Sambandan-Senathirajah-Suresh Premachandran triumvirate aligned the TNA with Sarath Fonseka openly it was a recipe for disaster:- DBSJ
Comment:- I thought of this “neutral position” before the election very much but if TNA remained neutral in this fight, they would have been branded as no hopers like the last election when the Tamils did not vote due to LTTE call which enabled mahinda to come in. Hypothetical question:- In your opinion DBS what would have been the best option for the TNA? Mind you, Thondaman again seem to have picked the correct side !!
DBSJ RESPONDS:
TNA could have said they were neutral and would not take sides. At the same time they should have called upon Tamils not to boycott the poll. Instead the TNA could have asked Tamils to choose wisely and decide on a candidate and vote for him. This “advice” was given the TNA and some MP”s agreeed. But the Sambandan – Senathi- Suresh trio imposed their will on the party
The TNA thought they were “King-makers”. The role of some western diplomats in Colombo in influencing the TNA towards Fonseka is deplorable
Who ever win in this election wouldn’t have made any difference at all in the Tamil people’s life, but the good thing is that, the TNA emerged as victorious; unfortunately some section of the Tamils didn’t like it.
But People have accepted the TNA’S endorsement and voted overwhelmingly in the Tamil homeland.
Now we have a leadership in our homeland to voice our grievances and carry forward our mandate and our objectives. Hope the TNA will deliver it.
What an essay. This is the most comprehensive and balanced article on the events and analysis of staged PE drama, so far I read. This summarizes everything from classic sources to e/c-news.
DBSJ, good job as usual. However, as a fan of your writing, I kindly tell you that there are few spelling and text errors found. One such is ‘PPolitical’ in this paragraph – ‘What has been lost sight of is the algebra of politics. PPolitical performances cannot be gauged arithmetically alone. All things are not constants and there are a lot of variables’.
If you get time please correct them to get this perfect.
Excellent ! Yes, they did it like school boys. They (Ranil-Mangala-JVP et al) couldn’t eat what they had (athey thibuna dey kate daganna beriuna).
Excellent ! Yes, they did it like school boys. They (Ranil-Mangala-JVP et al) couldn’t eat what they had (athey thibuna dey kate daganna beriuna).
It is always amazing how DBS Jeyaraj from far off Canada has a better understanding of the Sinhala people and political pulse than many journalists here. Those foreign press rushing in with half-baked observations never got it right
They could never realise the silent majority becoming supportive of Mahinda in a determined way
Thank you Mr.Jeyaraj for understanding Sinhala people and their thoughts well
I hope we can all live in peace and you will be back in Sri Lanka where you correctly belong
This idiot SF is wondering why he lost, after affliating with anti-SL forces. Sri Lankan people are NOT idiots to vote for you. You try to lie and misinform them trying to bribe them with money with promises. LTTE methods don’t work in SL. Live and learn. You are rejected , getover it, GROW UP.
Well done DBSJ; I hope SF would read this and stop resorting to childish allegation. MR is not the winner and SF is the looser. Winner is……RANIL WICKAMASINGHE.
SF could have emerged with MR’s patronage and strike later. What has been manifested was that SF is apolitical.
SF please take leaf from MR’s political book and learn.
Thanks.
Mahinda is regarded as a village boy from the South. The Sinhalese voters from the villages will side with him. He has developed the villages to a great extent and improved the lifestyles of the vilager. These are facts that cannot be denied. I lived in Sri lanka for 40 years before coming to the USA. in 1980. This is like the block vote that brought Bush into Power. People like Ranil, Fonseka and his crew are considered by the villagers as City Folk. This also plays a major part. The western media deliberately gave the wrong analysis with their polling as they depended on City people and use of computers. The villagers do not use computers and they are difficult to predict. This could also be used to stage an Iran style uprising by not acknowleding the winner. This will not work in Sri Lanka. The Westerners will soon find out that they fought a losing battle.
.
In Srilanka, anyone who agrees to a Tamils’ demand is a traitor.
Mahinda played the game very cleverly by pushing pro-LTTE’rs (Mano Ganeshan, Sampanthan….) to Fonseka’s side and he kept anti-LTTE’rs like Douglas and Karuna with him.
This made Fernando a traitor for Sinhalese.
But the downside of all this is Mahinda has made TNA a great force.
And with no LTTE around, TNA is going to become a very much pro-Indian party and this is the only way India can protect their borders too.
So, Mahinda winning in South and TNA in North is a victory for India.
DBS, being a IT professional for past 15 years. Vote rigging using software is not that difficult as you may think. Let me ask you a question, who developed Election commission Business Intelligence software used website? who maintained the databse? who serviced it? Think about it, the company who developed the software, designed the database, internal mechanisms are all well within the reach to manipulate the vote data by data feeds to the software within minutes. That too, knowing indian IT experts joining hands with architects of the software, it’s just too simple to finish the job inside the building or even from remote location.
The margin of 1.8 Mn is not that large in the sense that it takes half that number, 900,000 to draw even. Hence it is possible that rigging and other malpractices have taken their cumulative toll. The allegation that false ID cards numbering around 1.2 Mn was issued is significant. Also the loss of Tamil votes due to lack of transport and scare tactics would be significant. The opposition needs to come up with solid evidence and facts to support the various allegations. The allegation that Basil Rajapakse took control of the elections secretariat on the 27th morning is very serious and if proven should lead to a thorough investigation and recount.
DBSJ’s analysis of the situation is correct with the last minute swing in the southern vote base caused by the criticism of the forces and meeting with the TNA being manipulated by the govt to obtain maximum advantage.
Anyway you keep telling that because of the huge majority Fonseka’s allegations become less effective. But the main fact is the whole result is manipulated and the large majority is not REAL.
DBSJ
You sure have not let down your readers though you must have stressed yourself immensely. The best analysis i have read so far. I particularly liked this one
“It was like a group of schoolboys long hectored by the classroom bully deciding to pool their resources and hire the “Gamey chandiya” (village thug) to take on the bully”
And this one is food for thought
“Many of these seasoned politicians were prepared to cheer on a political novice as their champion knight. Some would unkindly describe it as preparing a lamb for the slaughter”
Now i think Ranil can go around telling, look its got nothing to do with me or my personality, when you are up against all odds this is what happens. You thought i’am the man who is bringing defeat after defeat, now what do you say.
I think Ranil is just waiting till he is in the seventies to become the president, following his uncle’s footsteps. like uncle like nephew they say.
Fonseka also as you have repeatedly pointed out earlier shot himself in the foot by bringing those war crimes allegations against Gota. Many sinhalese would have been shocked and their regard for him would have plummeted.
As you rightly pointed out one of his biggest problems is his own mouth and temper.
I still think he should not be written off, because people still admire him. He is a mixed bag, good and bad. If he makes an effort to learn from his mistakes, and gets politicallt savvy, who knows in the future, what he can become.
3 months political experience against a man with grassroots popularity of 40 years experience, coming from a political dynasty, and still he got 40 percent of the vote.
I agree with you he must stop those stupid promises. The 12 perches for each new born was the best one. A small country of 65000 sq.km with 22 million population, does he want to make it 50 million one day. Srilanka can’t feed itself even now. Even Australia with 7.6 million sq.km and 22 million people won’t give 12 perches.
Even without the TNA’s “kiss of death”, the Rajapaksa regime has always been carrying itself as a champion of the rural Sinhalese. Many of its policies from 2005 were designed to get the support of the rural votebank–fertilizer subsidies, new ports, etc.The high cost of living probably has more impact on people in urban areas than in rural ones. And it is a fact that rural areas are deeply Sinhala nationalist, though some would deny that. The claim that the election was close-to-call was made more by the Western and Indian media and probably some in the Tamil Diaspora; not by people who know the South well.
I don’t think the TNA had a choice; having seen how Pillaiyan and Sangaree were being treated, their options were either to maintain some neutrality/calling for boycott or to support the opposition. In that situation, given the slight probability of Fonseka’s win, it was not a bad decision to support the opposition, though those of us in the Diaspora will still press for war crimes charges against both Rajapaksa and Fonseka.
Some Sinhalese were still happy that the TNA supported a Sinhalese candidate who didn’t even support Federalism, implying that it was even willing to let go of its decades long demand for Federalism, let alone separation.
Brilliant incisive analysis.Can’t wait for the next instalment.
Incidentally dear DBSJ your article in the Hindu was also very good.
REVI UNNI
no5 Rajan, You said it all, The people in Colombo have no clue as to the aspirations and thought s of their fellow ‘Countrymen’. As usual SF is like a cry baby complaining that his peice of cake has been gobbled by MR.
There are those here still not knowing the process talking about election counting rigging and computer manipulation.
The counting is done by manually and the results are known by eleven in the night. Because it takes time to officially declare with EL COM signature it takes time.
EL COM complains because the poor chap cannot retire. Thanks to Sarath Silva’s judgement the Constitutional Council has to be formed. Maybe others can shed light on this matter. The guy has been complaining since 2005. wonder why he never left office? But he is a decent bloke and WILL annull if he knew any malpractices.
My only dissapointment is with the voter pattern of the north and east. I believe still the voters are intimidated by armed groups, or led by politicians or are willing to be led by politicians.
Wrong vote this time too?
Kodi-
DB, your article is very true and balanced in every aspect.
What’s this allegation of computerised fraud as they say that resulted in massive change of election results? Can it happen? Being the chief counting officer of many elections in the past (not at this time) I know that the ballot papers are counted manually by following a procedure that consists of a series of steps that the results of each and every step is recorded manually in black and white that could be checked and inspected by any authorised officer or by agents from any political party. It’s hard to think of a magic computer system that changes the final result as it could be challenged by any party producing the hard copies of the step by step counting results. I believe that this is just an attempt to mislead the ordinary public.
16. Don | January 29th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Had the TNA remained neutral in this election the situation may have been different. But when the Sambandan-Senathirajah-Suresh Premachandran triumvirate aligned the TNA with Sarath Fonseka openly it was a recipe for disaster:- DBSJ
Comment:- I thought of this “neutral position” before the election very much but if TNA remained neutral in this fight, they would have been branded as no hopers like the last election when the Tamils did not vote due to LTTE call which enabled mahinda to come in. Hypothetical question:- In your opinion DBS what would have been the best option for the TNA? Mind you, Thondaman again seem to have picked the correct side !!
DBSJ RESPONDS:
TNA could have said they were neutral and would not take sides. At the same time they should have called upon Tamils not to boycott the poll. Instead the TNA could have asked Tamils to choose wisely and decide on a candidate and vote for him. This “advice” was given the TNA and some MP”s agreeed. But the Sambandan – Senathi- Suresh trio imposed their will on the party
The TNA thought they were “King-makers”. The role of some western diplomats in Colombo in influencing the TNA towards Fonseka is deplorable’
____________________________________________
Dear DBS,
ref to your response to Don, are you saying that TNA should have just shun away from their responsibility of leading the tamils? if they would have been neutral what good it would have done to tamils? we tamils need a strong leadership at this moment and that leadership should guide the tamils. we tamils need a strong leader ship to to politics with IC, becouse tamils can not do any politics with the sinhala anymore as it has been proven beyond doubt. also can all those who condemed our LTTE being a terrorist, tell how they plan to get the tamils their basic rights which were robbed from the tamils by the sinhala, through political means?? I think no one has any idea on that.
TNA guys are not leaders. They were lackesys and followers of the LTTE……………..DBSJ
correct analysis. SF and western media not know how sinhalese minds work. SF can ascertain it if he come back to a re-election. Sinhalese do not like such a betrayer of the national heroes and revenger from his opponenets.
Pre-Election – The moot point as I saw was the absence of need for a ‘regime change’. If there was a need, there should have been a mood. You feel it. You smell it. But this time NO.
For a clear mood in support of a regime change, there must be two key factors in the country.
1. The incumbent should be extremely unpopular.
2. The opposition must be a popular alternative.
Can anyone tell me if the above was visible? Compare parallels to 1977, 1994 and 2001.
A lot of evidence now pointing to deals with Hi-Corp and fraudulent registration of dealership status with British Borneo.
The dirty allegation stuck.
This is by no means close to the most violent election in Sri Lankan history. That status goes to the 1988 election that was stolen from Mrs. B because of JVP terrorism and State terrorism.
The question is all this farting in the wind; where does it take if a man with a super sized ego cannot accept that politics is not like the military and you are no longer the feared dreaded leader? You lose and win and you give and take. It is clear that the absurd claims of massive rigging will fall on deaf ears.
The onus is on the cream puff team of Ranil, Mangy. Malik S and the common candidate along with former terrorist Somawansa to PROVE IT. Mrs B’s case went on for 3 years with evidentiary hearings and tossed out. WHERE IS THE PROOF? is this sour grapes from a huge ego even when Ranil said the election was fair?
The bigger question is will the issues of the minorities and the poverty issues be resolved now? Is Sri Lanka suffering from the Curse of Kuveni?
SF cannot claim to be clean; there is too much out there. And he said everything and anything to all groups. He agreed with the TNA’s absurd racist demand for a re-merger; He agreed with JVP on absurd measures such as giving 12 perches to everyone born in Sri Lanka; and a pay raise of 10K. He was incoherent and the first 4 weeks of his campaign was ALL about ME ME ME “I WAS WRONGED; I WAS TREATED WRONG and unfairly, I WON THE WAR no one but me me me me”. Then the UNP and USA trained him in sound bites but MR looked so positive, he spoke well, he spoke tamil, (give him his due for trying), he had passion and kindness and he smiled and people love him. SF was respected but never loved. Those in the army knew better about him too. One previous President who denied his extension request called him a cad who will make all women unsafe in the army and then endorsed him! funny bedfellows.
in time, as progress takes place and the development work in the N and E bear fruition Tamils will realize how good it is under MR compared to under that thug Somawansa’s Tamil clone Vellupillai was when they all had to sacrifice a child each for an absurd patently racist fascist cause.
I look forward to seeing a rich Jaffna soon with 5-star hotels, casinos, paved roads and investors. But the backward mindset of Tamils much change too. they are too conservative to accept western style change.
hi DBS
How did Mahinda secure his vote in Kayts?
DBSJ RESPONDS:
Sarath Fonseka got the most amount of votes in all the electoral divisions of Jaffna except Kayts. There Mahinda got 4611 and Sarath 3976. The Island areas have been dominated by the EPDP for many years
#16-Don
The TNA should have negotiated a bit harder and more sincerely with Mahinda. Right from the beginning Mahinda with his political experience knew that they were not serious in their negotiations with him and already decided what to do. If he thought otherwise he would have pulled out more carrots from his bag, but of course being sure that by getting for example 50000 tamil votes he does not lose 100000 sinhala votes. If mahinda was intransigent then the next best thing as DBSJ says is to tell the tamils to make their own choice after reading the manifestos. Why i said it is better to negotiate really hard with mahinda was because the winner was plain as a pikestaff. If you are not sure of the winner, or he is stubbornly a hardliner then the second option would have been more appropriate. In this case the negotiations with mahinda was just whitewash. TNA wanted to get their revenge. Now Mahinda will get his,not against the tamil people, because he knows these guys were thrust on them by the LTTE, but he will go all out to finish the TNA as a political force.
Election results are not acceptable. It was a result of misuse of public assets, threatening of public officers, vote rigging and bribes to the voters. In other words this is a Saddam Hussain type election. It is further confirmed by Election Commissioner’s post election speech. Therefore outside world should consider these facts when they are dealing with this regime.
The claims by the opposition is completely baseless and coming out of sheer frustration.They cannot say anything about the voting itself since none of the observers reported anything of that sort.Now they say the problem was in counting.they had counting agents in all the counting centres.Did they turn a blind eye to all these things?.If sarath fonseka won by 1.4 million for MR to have won by 1,8 million they would hav e to reverse 3.2 million votes in MR’s favour.This amounts to 1/3 of the votes cast.this is a joke.Fonseka and his goons will have to stomach the reality.People did not believe or accept SF
Mr Jayaraj has carried out a reasonable analysis.
However, like the western media , he has failed to identify a significant factor resposible for the rural support of Mahinda Rajapaksha, apart from the rural societies natural allegience to ” one of them – Mahinda” and his having delivered on his promise to deliver on eradication of terrorism and so deliver a safer Sri Lanka.
This additional factor is what he has already delivered and showed promise of much more to come, that is in “development”.
I just returend from a month in Sri Lanka where I travelled over three thousand Km , into many a nook and crivice of SL. The changes are there to behold, the improvement in the quality of the roading network, the southern highway projects, the port and airport development projects in Hambantota, even a windmill project in Hambantota, the gas fired power plant, hospital building constuctions, the improvement in IT literacy acknowledged even by Bill Gates, facts and factors that never get a mention , even edgeways in western analysis.
These are unprecedented changes in post independent SL and I could see the enormous difference from 18 months ago when I did the same travels.
Also , never getting a mention on ethnic issues, is tha fact that MR is the only President to address public meetings and media as a matter of routine in Tamil. He is the only national leader to have addressed the UN General assembly in Tamil, not done even by the Indian leader who represents 60 million Tamils while MR reperesnts only 2 million Tamils.
Also never counted in the equation is that the MR govt has Karuna, the one time deputy leader of the LTTE and arguably their all time best fighter, as a cabinet minister. Who better to represent the aspirations of the tamil people. Karuna is on record as saying that the aspirations of the Tamil people are the same as any other people, food , clothing , shelter and wealth. The unprecendent program unveiled for the East and north, where changes ar already visible in the East, addresses these aspirations.
I have no doubt that this is how thw MR administration will address the aspirations of the tamil people. It does not have to be by toing the line of the LTTE proxy , the TNA who will call moreof the same division and segregation not inteegration and assimilation into on Sri Lanka. The Tamil voter turn out at the election was 30% and 60% of them voted as per TNA insructions, which is 18% of the Tamil population of the North, hardly a representative voice. The western media never include these aspects in their analysis.
Also not mentioned is the encouragement and resources being put into improving Tamil litereacy among Sinhalese school childrena nd vice versa and improving Tamil literacy in the public service, as another way of addressing the tamil aspiration to freely communicate with their govt.
Another major criticism acknowledged as true is the use of state resources,especially the TV, radio and print media by the MR camp. However, this practice of govt media being it mouth piece at election time has been an ever worsening feature at every election since the media nationalisation of the 70′s. However, unlike then , their is an abundance of alternate print, TV and radio media now flying the flag for every shade of opinion , and availbility of such opinion is no second to that in the west. Another factor never acknowleded in most western analysis.
A vociferous criticism of the President during the campaign was his not establishing the ” Constitutional Council” as deemed by the 17 th ammendment.
On researching it I find that this requirement became law in October ’01 when Chandrika Bandaranayeke was president. I did not hear criticism of her for non compliance with her own legislation.
Further, I find that there is great debate about it’s wisdom given that minority community interests in this council are protected by statute while there is no such protection for the majority, with potential for reducing the majority to a minority or a 50-50 situation.in the council This does raise the spectre again of division along communal lines, what we are trying to get away from
Further, on important appointments to the public service and judiciary, bribery commisiion etc, this “appointed” commisiion replaces and undermines and even replaces the authoriy of the ” elected” authority of the President and parliamenet.
However, the need address corruption , allegations and perception of corruption and nepotism looms large as a major challenge for the President as also reestablishing relations with the west on a better footing. The initial post election remarks of the President and the US and EU responses are very encouraging in this regard.
A new an immediate challenge for the President is to demonstrate his magnanimity to the vanquished challenger, what ever his faults may be.
I have no doubt that Mahinda Rajapaksha is upto that task.
Dr.Chula Rajapakse MNZM
FRCP FRACP
This is only the first part of my article. It is not the finished product………….DBSJ
IT’S A GOOD RESEARCHED PAPER.BUT THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ELECTION WHICH VOTERS MADE THEIR MIND IS WAS MADE BY THE GOVERNMENT MEDIA’S ABUSESS,USED THE ALL POSIBLE GOVERNMENT RESOURSESS BY THE MAHINDA GROUP.WITHOUT THESE VIOLATIONS OF ELECTION RULES,THIS ELECTION’S RESULT CAN BE FAVOUR OF THE GENERAL FONSEKA.LOOK AT THE AFTER THE ELECTION NOW,GOVERNMENT IS LETTING THE GENERAL FOR HIS DEATH BY REMOVING SECURITY FOR HIM.HOW THE GOVERNMENT BECAME SO ANTI SRI LANKA BY TREATING A TRUE WAR HERO LIKE THIS KIND OF DIRTY WAYS MISUSING THE POWER FOR PERSONEL REASONS.
Good article and as always soundly argued although I would question whether the ‘situation’ (by which I take it you mean the result) would have been different if the TNA had remained neutral. I doubt the overall result will have been different. Sarath Fonseka was the ‘best’ candidate the opposition could offer but he was by no means a good candidate. The odds were stacked against him (or anybody else who chose to contest the President) and all Fonseka did during the campaign was to add to them. The vote rigging charge rings a bit hollow because the results show the President faring badly in districts and centres where he was indeed expected to not do well e.g Colombo. Significant vote rigging will have ensured he will have ‘won’ there.
By 12:00 mid night Sri Lanka time, based on the feed back from the districts SF was leading with 1.4 million votes. These records are with SF’s poling agents and now compiled and kept with SF. (Theses are the records that Government is now searching in SF’s election office)
When the results were announced by EC they were reversed. For example, there was a counting centre (Kallutura District) that reported SF has won by around 8,000 votes in Beruwela but when the results were announced it was MR who won in Beruwela by the same margin.
Some internet news site reported that a senior presidential adviser (I do not want to mention the name without any verification) was with the EC at mid night at the election Secretariat., instructing (intimidating) EC to reverse the results.
EC has openly admitted that he could not control three counting centres namely Puttalam, Anuradapura and Matale. Following are exactly what he said:
“ Regional leaders harassed my team and I in several areas such as Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Matala Districts , they even bothered the counting centres. This is not a good trend. In fact, it reached an uncontrollable level of verbal abuse directed at Presiding Officers and Asst Elections Commissioners. “
Strange enough these were not highlighted in any of the local press.
The speech delivered by EC after the results were announced was a funeral speech for the death of democracy in Sri Lanka.
You can mark my words.
Hi DBJ
A lot of tamil people suported TNA and listened to them by voting against Mahinda. Do you think that it convets that the tigers still enjoy considerable support among tamils? Please take this into consideration that the tigers are not potent force anymore to threaten tamil people. Inthis election tamils voted without any fear.
#42, Well said Dr Chula, I too travel up and down to trinco many times a week. I have also seen developments such as Roads, Vocational training centres, small concrete roads and general upliftment of the living standards, Of course its a joy to see children going to school, however bad they may be still school is school. While we send brickbats to politicians we should also talk of positive effects. The fact that MR spoke in tamil is of no use given the overwhelming support given to SF from the tamil speaking areas. I now wonder what language one has to speak to winthe hearts of Tamils. The good that we attempt to do sometimes is not recognised.
As for me I never look at the Dark side of anyone leaset my world is dark. Even in Praba I see a father, husband and son.
DBSJ RESPONDS:
Content of speech is more important than the language in which it is spoken.Likewise an ounce of action is better than a ton of talk. If Mahinda can reacch out through genuine action to the Tamil people there would be a positive response. When action is suspect no amount of sweeet talk can convince.Action speaks louder than words
Tamils should not fear for anyone in exercising their democratic franchise. They supported SF in this presidential election because MR failed to deliver a political solution after the war was over.
IF MR wants the Tamils votes in the Parliamentary election let him take some meaningful actions to address the political aspirations of the Tamils. If not they will continue to vote for the opposition.
What is important is to be the unity of Tamil & Muslims of the North & East to voice their political aspirations. Their vote bank should be intact. They should not fall prey to petty social and economic benefits that may be offered by Douglas and other MR’s allies.
[...] read an article by DBJayaraj that I read from top to bottom and awaiting the nest installment. There were many other articles [...]
Thanks for this review DBS. Hope this nation would understand how you are trying to wake this nation into reality.
SF was portrait as an “avenger” on his opponents. Some of SF’s statements added fuel into it.
But after the elections it looks like that MR is the avenger.. If he is the real victor why should he put pressure on the opposition candidate and his supports. No kings of this Island has done this before according to the history available at present. So the status cult of a king what MR tried to build has collapsed now. “Truth Prevails for ever” “Sathya Jaya ganie”
Politics is totally a different subject. It is not like a military strategy. A leader should have some sense of anthropology, sociology, political philosophy and atleast a little knowledge of psychology.
Some Tamil parties which supported SF has done the damage to the feelings of the sinhalese. Majority of the sinhalese have school of thought that this country belongs to a particular language and religion.
Ceylon’s education system should educate the citizens to understand that this is a mutli-ethnic & religious country and learn to accommodate everyone into this country in this civilized world.
When the people think that they are in the 21st century and try live in harmony the politicians due to their petty political existence create divisions among these citizens on language, religion and caste.
Has this country lost its opportunity to bridge the difference between communities. There is a very wide gap now according to the election result we see.. When will the citizens be educated the need of statesmen to this nation. People should think in a broad perspective way to save this country from Petty politicians & racist.
Now it is the responsibility of all communities to think seriously of the future of Sri Lanka.
“What you sow you will reap”. “Those who live by the sword would die by the sword” These teachings we have been listening quite often in religious places.
Mahatma Gandhi won things through ahimsa. Violence cannot bring victory it could give birth to disasters.
The day the Sinahalese, Sri Lankan Tamils, Muslims, Burgers, Malays, Bhais, Sindis, Malayalies, Chinese, Indian Moors and the Indian Tamils realize their blunder allowing the politicians to create divisions among it’s citizens for their existence and well being. Ceylon would have been the superpower in Asia if not for the petty politicians. Ceylonese people should be proud of having a mixture of communities in this small pearl island. So throw away your diffences. Get rid of those ideas which create racism from your society. As a nation stand up to build this nation as South Asia’s superpower for the moment and then forge ahead to be Aisa’s superpower.
“United we stand Divided we fall” Over to you Sri Lankans. Wake up!….Wake up!………Wake up…………
Pattern of voting and winning districts by SF are exactly the same as the LTTE Tamil Elam map. Only exception is that NuwaraEliya is also added to the Ealam map (as that has gone to SF as well).
The votes accounted for SF in Sinhala areas on the other hand (a combination of UNP+JVP block vote + war hero fans) are also somewhat revenge taking type.
It is unfortunate that this important election outcome has become grievance based than based on policy.
I am keen to see how the parliamentary election pans out. Only together we may read into some meaningful trends which indicate the challenges ahead for the nation.
As far as the key issue is concerned it is evident that Karuna/Pilleyan and Douglas Devananda franchise with MR is less effective than TNA franchise with SF. Interpretation that 40% anti government votes as rightfully SF’s (for his political leadership) is a fallacy due to obvious reasons.
In fact SF has weakened JVP+UNP+TNA block vote.
I also do not think SF should be given a political future in this country.
However, he could be a valuable exile to many interested parties. If he stays back and become a parliamentarian, he will serve the same way as Cyril Mathew in UNP and Mervin Silva in the current SLFP. SF is capable of running a mafia style group.
So all areas where non-Sinhala ethnicities are concentrated belong to “LTTE Eelam map”…….DBSJ
Ref my comment about MR speaking in tamil and DBSJ responce I totally agree. content and action being more inportant. I can say with responsibility that there is rampant ‘kappan’ by Pillyan, Karuna and EPDP in their respective areas and one issue mentioned by my tamil friends in Trinco is that ‘ Why MR is not taking action’.
My point being that it takes time and effort for one to learn a language. If I were to look at it negatively I would say it was done for ‘Tamil Votes’ just like some ‘gundu’s dished out at election time. But if I were to look at it positively then I would say it was a genuine start to reaching out.
However time would only tell whether tamils in the north would ever accept a sinhalese president. But then they did vote for SF didnt they.
DBSJ RESPONDS:
I do appreciate Mahindas efforts to learn Tamil. No other leading Sinhala pollitician has done that before. He also makes it a point to say a few paragraphs in Tamil when he makes important speeches. It must also be noted that he is the first leader from any part of the world to speak iin Tamil at the UN general assembly. So many Tamils from India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Singapore, Mauritius and South Africa have spoken but Mahinda was the only man through whom some Tamil was heard in that forum. GG Ponnambalam, Lakshman Kadirgamar, Sinnathamby Rajaratnam,Gopalswamy Parthasarathy, Panrutti Ramachandran,Vaiko have all spoken at UN. But “Themadhuraththamizh” (The Honey-sweet Tamil)came from Mahindas lips only.
His detractors will call it derisively as a political stunt. Stunt or not I appreciate the gesture.
Perhaps he will master Tamil on the one hand and resolve the Tamil national question on the other and announce the solution iin pure Tamil one day
By the way I feel that it would do a lot of good for the quality of politics in the country if it is mandatory that all candidates contesting Parliament should be able to speak and read both Sinhala and Tamil. What do you think?
When DBJS’s first article on Fonseka appeared in his columns, as he entered the race. I commented that Jeyraj has done a good demolition job on Fonseka.True to form this article sums up succinctly all the deficiencies of this pretender.
Even after the thrashing he got he still carries on like a pork chop.He acts like a school yard bully who got in to the 2nd eleven .and demonstrates his petulance by not obeying the umpire, when given clean out.
I think Rajapaksa should keep him on the political scene until the parliamentary elections. That will fix Ranil and the other gringos who made Fonseka the idiot of the Century.
A very good article. No doubt the colombians inside their luxary houses or chatting during their kultur parties only met their kind. Most of these people have not set foot to the rural areas if they have done that is in the laps of luxary in 5 star hotels in variou parts of the country moving about in AC cars. They have never met the ordinay people who would give their life and their meal for the sake of the country as they gave their sons unlike the colombians who know how to party and boast about their obviously poor knowledge of the country. They think their ideas are the ideas of the nation- colonial mentality!!!My family ( my husband and I are medical consultants who were born and bread in colombo but we like to mingle with the rural common man whenever possible either when we are vacationing or conducting clinics. We were fortunate to meet hundreds of people before the elections and the only thing we heard was that ” Mahinda Mahattaya witharai gamata mokawath kare. Anith aya gamata enne chande kaleta” -only MR did something for the village, others remember us only during election time. This was clearly said by the Ambalangoda prelate who said that SF never sited the village even after the tsunami where as MR did , which resulted in 67.79% votes forMR vs 35.98% for the village fellow SF.There were practically no challenge for president in the rural areas where there were even no party offices seen for SFin most places exept for major towns. The problem with SF is that he never travelled to these rural areas but had major rallies in certain areas where the JVP brought their members to fill the venue, but if he tried to have a small stroll down the village pathways and looked for himself he would not have been fooled. He has mainly looked at the crowds in the rallies and asumed that all the sri lankans were there. The other point is if he is saying there was rigging – since MR got DOUBLE the percentage of votes in most of the areas exept for few stations like senkadagala (52.33 MRvs 46.44 SF)Badulla Welimada (53.19 vs45.07)Mahanuwara, pahatha Dumbara(49.61 vs 47.99)Rantota mathale (54.35 vs 43.04) Nuwara , Gampola (49.62 vs 48.14), Harispaththuwa (51.50 vs 46.85) Yatinuwara (58.16 vs 40.24) udunuwara (50.88 vs 47.21)paranagama (55.85 vs 42.05) kotte (52.17 vs 46.81)Mathara (55.07 vs 43.97)Rathmalana (53.16 vs 45.8)kelaniya(56.92 vs 42)walapane(55.89 vs 40.52)kundasale(55.66 vs 42.816)Beruwala(54.35 vs44.29)Bandarawela(52.30 vs 45.51)Ja ela(58.31 vs 40.81) moratuwa( 57.9vs 41.03)kolonnawa(53.19 vs 45.67) hewaheta (51.55 vs45.66)mawanella(57.89vs40.14) it means that all the other stations where he won by nearly double had vote rigging or computer rigging. This means almost 70- 80% of the officers involved were guilty of malpractices which it self indicates that the majority of govt servants are with him , what a wonderful fairy tale. If this result was seen in only a few areas where MR’s votes were 4-5 times higher than SF votes then we can say there had been rigging as there was 50-50 win in other areas. But saying that vote rigging occurred in 70 % of areas is a BIG and UNBELIEVABLE JOKE. So my advice for everybody is to accept the fact that only the urban population accepted SF, accept defeat and get on with rebuilding this war torn beutiful country and make it the pearl of the Indian Ocean back again.
The great bluff of this century!
EPDP leader Douglas Devananda says he was to resign from his parliamentary seat because the people of Jaffna had not voted for President Mahinda Rajapakse. However the Minister says he is now reconsidering the move.
MP Devananda said once the news of his decision to step down from his parliamentary position was spread around Jaffna, many of his supporters had taken to the streets and staged ‘hartals’ asking that he reconsider his decision.
The EPDP leader said that he had no intention of disrupting normalcy in Jaffna and for this reason alone had told the protesters and his supporters that he would reconsider his decision.
May be any pressure from his porich buddies, business/ contract partners or the masters?….. or a stunt to get some more?….hmmmm
For in detail news: DailyMirror
This is an articulation of the obvious but a well written one though.
With hindsight wisdom it is easy to piece together what went wrong and what went right to that resulted in the final outcome.
Would have been nice to see some questions on those things about the result that did not add up, to give the article some balance. For instance why was the government so desperate leading up-to the election? Did everybody read the pulse of the people so wrongly? Just because you cannot explain something doesn’t mean you have to overlook them. Its ok to write an article that doesn’t answerer all the questions especially if you do not know the answer to them.
An event can be analysed only after it happens. Journalists are not astrologers…………….DBSJ
Also local pro SF media (eg-Irudina, Sunday Leader, Lanka) not touched voters mind. They also used famous mud slinging work! They cater readers who already decided to vote SF. Not the decent floating voters! This is collective failure of all SF group!
#46. Ramesh
I am afraid that your conclusion could be true.
Tamils in this election have indicated still they support LTTE ideology though they may not agree with LTTE’s methodology.
I would think the present Srilankan govt is more responsible than the Tamils for the tamil’s voting pattern ie. either boycot the election or vote against MR .
well compiled article though i’ll like to add my two cents worht of opinion.
what we have failed to analyse is the tempo that was increased during the entire election campaign by the mr regime. there were many first times, things that didn’t happen during previous election campaigns. the impression on us was if the regime was prepared to openly flout the election laws they were also ready to do anything and everything to stay in power – legal or illegal. the impression was as clear as black on white.
therefore, what will stop them from not resorting to some massive election fraud. the prize of winner takes all is too tempting to give up at any cost and the end result is what we see today. these rogues know very well once the winner is declared, specially in a presidential election, no power on earth can kick them out of the presidency.
analysing the electoral results, too, show that there are huge discriminations. for instance electorates adjoining an electorate won by sf but won by mr depict big majorities in the winning margin. this can never happen. these electorates are bound to each other and therefore, the political mind set are equal to the adjoining electorate. if there is a difference in the political ideologue it can not be so great as to the huge winning margins recorded in the final results.
Hi DBS Jeyaraj
A lot of tamil people suported TNA and listened to them by voting against Mahinda. Do you think that it conveys that the tigers still enjoy considerable support among tamils? Please take this into consideration that the tigers are not a potent force anymore to threaten tamil people. In this election tamils voted without any fear, especialy without any pressure and threat from tigers.
The issue of “Tamil voting” cannot be viewed so simplistically………….DBSJ
A DBSJ masterpiece with precise analysis & commentary. How you capture the true sense of an event thousands of miles away so well is beyond me…. may be it’s the Midas touch ! Thanks for your contribution to Sri Lankan journalism.
Oops! You are putting more glory to TNA in this elections. True enough that the areas won by SF was in so-called Tamil speaking areas. The map silently show that it was the former LTTE map.
Anyway, this elections showed our people something good; the deciding factor for presidential elections or any elections would be Sinhala votes!
Since the independence our people didn’t think that way, but now its proved for them. There won’t be any ‘kingmakers’ from now on. All these little sofa parties, who’s ONLY wanting is to exploit the same people they seem to represent, just like Prabakaran did, are now in quandary. Good!
The so-called ethnic parties must now fall in or get vanished from the political scene.
TNA should not be allowed to exist anymore, just like the Prabakaran’s LTTE, TNA – Prabakaran’s proxy should not be allowed to exist. Interestingly, it will be Sri Lankan Tamils, who would eliminate this party from the political scene.
Not like these foreign Tamils, our Tamils have to live with us, to be fully fledged Sri Lankans, one Team, one Country.
Jaffna should have its Sinhalese, Muslims, Malays and Burghers. Jaffna should speak in all languages of Sri Lanka. No one tells a Tamil in Wellawatta or Kotahena to speak in Sinhala, and just like that no one should say that a Sinhalese, Muslim or Malay or Burgher should not live in Jaffna and speak in Sinhala or English.
There should not be areas typically Tamil speaking anymore.
If you look around Colombo, you’d find lot of shops run by Tamils of Jaffna and other “Tamil speaking” areas, and if Sinhalese are that racist as some of the “Tamil foreigners” say, these Sinhalese can bankrupt any such shop by not buying from them. But our Sinhalese are a gentle people, and that’s why so many intruders have a good time exploiting us.
In Sri Lanka, the votes will be always decided by the Sinhalese, not by any “minority”. Its better for all minorities to take heed that there should not be any minorities, majorities in Sri Lanka, but a nation of Sri Lankans!
I have seen in a far away rural town a single Tamil-owned shop, but I have never seen anyone saying anything ugly to the owner. He and his family had become a part of the town. It should be like that in the so-called Tamil-speaking areas. Only if Tamils can believe in co-existence.
30 years of Prabakaran’s boot had left lot of wounds in Tamil people of ‘Tamil speaking’ areas, so it is about time for the Tamils to throw away their “racist” feelings.
Remember, even in massive India, where the Tamil Nadu – The Land of Tamils, Tamil is NOT an official language. So, Sri Lankan Tamils are privileged in Sri Lanka, where Tamil is an official language.
To all foreign Tamils of Sri Lankan origin; learn to love Sri Lanka, learn to be a Sri Lankan, and not to be a separatist.
If you guys want to be separatists, you have a better chance in India, where the Land of Tamils is situated and you have 60 million.
Remember too that the world’s best bowler is a product of Sri Lanka, Muttaiah Muralitharan, a Tamil, but not a product of Tamil Nadu or India! Remember too that one of the world’s best Foreign Ministers, Lakshman Kadirgamar, a Tamil was a product of Sri Lanka, not a product of India.
Remember too that world’s worst, most ruthless terrorist was born in Sri Lanka, Prabakaran, a Tamil, but to parents of foreign ethnicity.
What a racist rant.Ariya,you are a racist of the highest(or is it lowest) order……….DBSJ
Hi Jeyaraj
My first question which government in Sri Lanka didnt use state resources for elections ? is it J R, Premadasa, Chandriak, Mahinda. But there is a limit you can do that , look at Chandrika’s victory and Ranils 2001 too, if people decide , they can bring who ever they want, governments cant do any thing. This is Sri Lankan politics. Pls consider the fact majority of the Sinhalese are intelligent, TNA association or Saraths loose cannon mouth is not the real reason for this. People understood what is going on and for regime changes this is not the correct time and also understood the wider picture played by US and EU. Even if the UN comes and conduct the election this is the result you will get !!!. We are a mature country people know politics very well ( This is sometimes too much, less priority for work), go to a salloon, go to a village coffee shop they will tell every thing about Sri Lankan politics…
Very good Article DBS. You analyze in and out and put the clear picture,
“The TNA thought they were “King-makers”. The role of some western diplomats in Colombo in influencing the TNA towards Fonseka is deplorable…..DBS.”
That is 100% true. As I wrote many times in this block there was big western conspiracy behind the SF campaign. But MR tactfully manages all the challenges wisely. I’m really sorry for TNA who got pregnant after one night stand with SF. They should decide carefully as keep the baby or go for abortion. Now they are political orphans. I noticed in the previous article, few people mentioned that NE people voted for SF, because of TNA’s request. But I don’t think so. I spoke to many people in the NE well before TNA decided to back SF, and they said they have no choice than SF. I think one of the reasons TNA opted SP because they know already that people will vote for SF. Still some people talking that SF won all the area from their dream land of Tamil Elam. Why don’t they call him and fill the VP’s vacancy?
“Where I differ is that I don’t think these acts of omission and commission were “enough” to warrant a total negation of the result and annulment of poll………..DBS”
I totally agree with you. I know SF had good support some stage and confident of his victory. Many including me thought MR needs minority votes to avoid the 2nd count. But many Sinhalese change their mind after his association with TNA. SF did not expect the last minute cross over. That’s why, the man boosted for believable change, can not accept the unbelievable result. I think he should stop moaning and do something practical.
“Widespread corruption, high levels of nepotism and flagrant abuse and misuse of power were the allegations against the regime described as comprising a close family clique………..DBS”
MR should seriously looking into these allegations and do some thing to stop. But in reality these allegations are nothing new to SL politics and MR learned them from the past. Even SF come to power he will do the same. But any how that is not acceptable. As DBS wrote yesterday MR’s desk has full of priorities. Let’s see how he handles those.At the same time we should handle him as well.
- If this analysis is true, it unfortunately shows how much ethnic hatred exists in that country. The Sinhalese agree to all the crimes that were committed (be it shelling and indiscrimnately bombing the tamils even in hospitals, killing the journalists such as Lasantha, corruption including secret deals with the LTTE leader, bankrupting the country)
- May be a good thing of this election is that the people who commit these crimes are still in power, and hence will be held accountable for these crimes. Since the same people are still in power, these crimes will not be atleast forgotten.
TNA support for Fonseka tipping the balance in favour of Rajapakse reminds of the parliament elections in UP.
Mayawati was touted as the “King Maker” before the elections given that she had considerable influence in UP the state with the largest number of seats in the parliament. But the muslims in UP were convinced that Mayawati will support the BJP after the elections and therefore they voted enmasse to the congress virtually wiping out Mayawati’s negotiating power.
The tamil voting pattern makes one wonder if there is any hope for reconciliation.
DBS,
Excellent analysis well presented,look forward to part 2. You know the heart beat of the nation.
Whatever Western media reported and slogans like regime change well passed its use by date.
‘Lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on’-Churchill
India always wanted Rajapakse back in power and they wanted a mature leader in-charge to do inclusive politics. There was no threat to India from its southern neighbour from the time immemorial.
Whom to vote was firmly decided in May -09, since then voters had a free pass to watch the show keeping their feet up. Political satire with improved language, skilfully fed thru technology was fascinating, but nothing put forward from the opposition, except personal attacks.
There is a mystery vote. correct me if I am wrong.
When you see the history of voting patters in the past, Colombo district always won by UNP. This time won by Rajapakse.
Then what happened to Tamil community approx half a million I believe, who left Jaffna due to uncertainty and resettled in Colombo district over the past 20 years. They must have voted Rajapakse when they realised the difference between war and peace in the 2 regions.
Registered vote of 0.7million and voted only 25% in Jaffna puzzles me, do they include dead terrorist?
Any democratic political party advising voters to boycott election is a deplorable act.
TNA insulted voters intelligence, they don’t have to think for Tamils as they have their own mind. LTTE as a terrorist outfit demanded such a thing. TNA lost a great opportunity and credibility. What happened to old TULF? Diaspora Tamils who led various campaigns against the SL state are on notice.
As it says ‘If you did the crime do the time’
Therefore the best option is to forget the past and abandon separatist claim and help to rebuild the country harmoniously, time will heal the wounds. SL always been one country under one flag. It is big enough to share but too small to tear.
The more Fonseka opens his mouth he is perceived to be a political liability. Even he goes to courts on election issue, convincing courts a fraud of this magnitude will be very difficult as counting was done manually in front of party representatives. Fonseka was taken for a ride, he addressed rent-a-crowd organised by UNP and JVP, but he believed it as a mass gathering wherever he went.
One time he claims asylum in the West, then say wish to contest in parliamentary election, this confuses the electorate further. This may be the 2nd episode, however his school boy behaviour won’t do him any favours.
A cartoonist put it, Fonseka didn’t get his own vote!
39. shankar:-I think TNA had their own problems in negotiating with MR. You are correct that they also wanted to extract revenge from MR for destroying LTTE. But they were divided. Then 3 of them who supported SF pushed TNA support to SF. Correct, MR will now destroy TNA. I said before on this blog, if TNA supported either of the candidates and that one looses, they are finished. Would have been a safer option if TNA told the Tamils to pick their own.
46. Ramesh 58. sjoseph:- Correct. Majority of Tamils up to today support Elam and LTTE were the deliverers of their dream although some would not agree with LTTE methodology. MR was the destroyer of their dream. They got a very poor opinion of Karuna, Pillian and Devananda. But out of the three, Pillian is the best guy. Current Tamils will not forgive MR.
My children are learning tamil. Its the second laguage now for ALL kids in Govt. and semi Govt schools. But not speaking at home is a hindrance to further the knowledge. But there would be at least 10% who would speak and understand over the years. Tamil is not an alien language for my kids now. They can write and read. Not well but still its done.
I hope that one day when they are adults they would not have any mistrust any tamil speaking persons.
But clearely ethnic intergration has to happen too. We cannot have Sinhala Maha Vidyalaya and Hindi Colleges and Muslim Ladies colleges.
The ehtnic harmony or ‘Curry’ we had at STC was what makes you and I think rationally, nationally passionately, and fierce guardians of our own culture. But we never harbour enmity but mutual admiration.
I admire MR for taking the trouble to learn tamil. This gesture I hope is appreciated by the Tamil speaking people without suspicion.
‘Poitu ware’ Machan – I hope I got that right!!
Dropped an “N” but that’s ok.”Gihila enda machang”…………..DBSJ
The simple sinhalese villager knows next to nothing of unitary or united character of a country. But he knows that LTTE and their proxies threatened the security of the country. Had Lukshman Kadirgamar contested Mahinda, he would have performed better. Simply due to the reason that he would not have aligned himself with TNA or Mano Ganeshan. it is not racism but SECURUTY. SECURITY with a big S.
MR won by 1.8 million votes, if 0.9 million votes had gone to SF, then even.
If you factor into modern day rigging, combine with age old way of rigging plus intimidation, monopolizing the state media for self serving propaganda, using state resources, etc…., then it would have been a very close win for MR at the best.
( This is not unique to MR regime, all politician are capable of doing the same, but MR took it to a new level and made the precedence)
Then again, it is Srilanka where people are proud of the achievements of their politicians, no matter how and what they do. People have not move from ” high literacy level” to education and learning. Trapped in a box of hatred, bias, racism, ignorance…….
What does it tell us ? We are far away from building a just and decent society.
Many people are unaware of the “Real” Sarath Fonseka. A few unknown facts about Sarath …..Sarath Fonseka was court marshalled for rape in 1975 (For those that dont believe me feel free to check army records). Sarath is a maniac who would cut off the year of his barber for accidently knicking him in the ear while getting a haicut, that caused an army cook to go deaf due to the physical violence unleashed on him because the cook could not get a perfect bullseye when making his morning breakfast, a notorious womanizer (using his position to coerce women in the army…70+ women over the years)..
Defeated paramilitary leader and Rajabaksa party member Douglas is playing dramas for Tamil people, we don’t want you please resign and go.
We want real Tamil leaders and Tamil party.
# 42 & 47:
“Sri Lankans couldn’t find employment since the Chinese aided harbour project employed only Chinese labour.”
See news in Sunday Times, Colombo, Jan 17, 2010
All well intentioned people who follow this column, should write to Mahinda in some way and advice him how to overcome all his deficiencies, in order to win the next general election.
#60 Ramesh, good question. Thanks.
Tamil militancy was a natural evolution of struggle for political grievance since 1948. Tigers ( one of the militant groups) became dominant force eliminating other militants and the moderates.
Now, Tigers are gone as a dominant force but root cause is still simmering and I am not surprised of the voting pattern.
This does not translate into simply “support” for “tigers”
Then again militants are sons and daughters of North and East, people ( tamils) may not agree with tigers but still their children.
For South they are simply “terrorist” and tendency to see everything thru that glass.
Destiny of all the community in SL is intertwined, Until we sincerely reconcile, respecting political rights and the human rights, it is going to be status quo which will continue to destroy the fabric of the society.
Struggle for good governance begins with minority rights.
Hi JBS,
Wonderful analysis!
However, you need to take into account the prositutioanalisation of State media at all level.
I listened to SLBC Sinhala service, a good part of 26th January and I was amazesd how Hudson Samaarasinghe, SLBC DG, (or person commonly known as Hudda) indirectly and directly requesting the SINHALA voters to vote for MR from the morning.
It was unbelieveble!
As you know people do listened to he radio and I don’t know what was broadcast through the Tamil medium of SLBC.
This is worth exploring as a part of your analysis!
communal politics by the minorities have prevented the majority community from voting in a leader with a record of good governance. RW thought he could become President by pleasing the minorities, probably influenced SF to do the same. Tamils are king makers philosophy. After the CFA no one trustss him. Until the minorities abandon this narrow nationalistic policies the majority will continue to vote with there feet.
Dear DBS:
If you know of any specific vote rigging incidents with true evidence, please let everybody know.
Anybody can speculate vote rigging in favour of either candidate.
Uless one can show clear evidence, this accusation on either candidate has no vlaue.
We hear enough stories from either side. But we want facts and true evidence from you.
Cheers !
ls
“The Criminal Investigations Department officers have surrounded the Lanka office and sealed it today,” the web edition of the paper said.
Hey guys,
Learn how to loose , be a sportsman .
The way Sarath Fonseka acting is pathetic.
You loose try next time . You could not even win your city you born.
I do not know who advising you.
This is what you would have done and you really woud have a chance to be a president. Now you screwed it up nicely.
you would have waited four more years and just show you like Mahinda and contest your home town .
Then try the presidency . You would have won a lanslide margin.
My advise fire all the jokers around you get a good adviser.
Take defeat gracefully , stop talking noncense, novody beleives , you know why everybody i n the world congradulate him , usa , eu whole world.
Then you come up with all allegation, you look so stupid .
Calm down , take defeat gracefully , try your home twon as a MP and then try presidency next time, build it up now.
i hope you take my advise.
sumedha
Dear DBS,
“The other candidates particularly Sarath Fonseka were treated like stepchildren of stepchildren. A near total black-out!”
Judging by the quality of Fonseka’s press statements, I think this had actually benefited the Fonseka campaign!!
DBS, of the factors you mentioned above, the most important was Fonseka’s ugly language and specifically his public threat to throw Mahinda and others in prison once elected just a few days before the election. Many Sinhalese who were lukewarm Fonny supporters got scared dumped him at that point. He had cast himself as a vengeful and self-destructive personality. All the sympathy Fonseka had won after his supporters were attacked by Mervyn thugs in December was lost.
The Hicorp corruption accusations/counter-accusations didn’t play a huge role, they are part and parcel of politics.
The TNA association may have played a role, but none of my friends and relatives mentioned it. My own father naively hoped that if Fonseka won, he would appoint Sampanthan as PM and the two would be forced to work together to reestablish ethnic amity. TNA may have been lackeys of LTTE but there are many Sinhala lackeys of Rajapakses so lackeyism is a common uniting thread in our cultures.
I think the association with elitist, comprador Ranil was far more damaging than the association with TNA.
Unrelated question for DBS- did you finish the series on Tamil Nadu? I did not see the final part. I would like to read it because I learned alot from the previous parts.
Oops! No, not yet. The TamilNadu separatism series finale is yet to come………….DBSJ
A reinforced simple fact from this election is the same old one.
SL is a divided country and the Tamils and Sinhalese never prefered the same candidate. A reason why Tamils and Sinhalese cannot live under one country.
If Tamils do not speak their mind (TNA publically siding with Conseka) and behave cunningly, then there is a chance they can get their way. Because the Sinhalese will never deliver on the legitimate Tamil asperations and the only way to get them is by tricking the Sinhalese. Sad situation in deed.
All these indicate we should allow both nations to separate. The only reason Sinhalese want the united country is to have a say in the Tamil destiny. The majority of the Sinhalese are not matured enough to accomodate the legitimate aspirations of the Tamils and they are easily manipulted by the sinhalese chavunist politicians.
Thanks Mr. Jeyeraj this is the most facfull, reasonig ,realstic analysis I read. They did it like school boys, they didnt realised what is on the ground. SF should thanks for his political inexperience and foolish advisors of political party acked ihim
I feel that the final result is good for the Tamils. Rajapakse who hoodwinked the international community for the past five years dragging on the solution for the ethnic problem, cannot drag it any more. Had Fonseka been elected, he would be dragging the solution for the next six years without doing anything. Remember he assured Mahanayake Theros that he will never betray the Sinhalese, which means that he will never grant the legitimate rights to the Tamils. The decision by TNA to ask the Tamils to vote for Fonseka was influenced by the Tamil Intellectuals and Varsity students deciding not to boycott the elections and to use their vote for a regime change. Rajapakse was first installed as President due to the enforced boycott by LTTE. If this did not happen, Mahinda would have lost and would have been a non entity for ever. Now he has entrenched his position by playing Sinhala nationalistic card and is difficult to dislodge him. This does not mean that he can dodge solving the Tamil problem, after all he has promised India that he will do it after the election.
The president never really ‘spoke’ the tamil language. In meetings in sri lanka,he read the transliteration of a tamil message on a teleprompter. This was shown in a few photos in a website. In the UN he probably read the transliteration of a few sentences,typed out, in english or sinhala.
In one meeting in jaffna, some tried to speak to him in tamil,and realised that he actually could not speak tamil.This was reported in a a media website.
All along the president never really worried about the Tamil vote, he knew they didn’t really care for him or the ex-General. His need for Karuna and co was more to show faith in them and his concern for the minorities to the international community.
His only concern with minorities was that if the heartland and south did not turn up in numbers then their votes would then have a slight role in the election outcome.
His main concerns were getting people to the polling station. The UNP and JVP helped him to a great extent in this. Them and his strategy of over-saturating the government media with his messages took adequate care of this. He always knew the unwashed masses would never prefer the ex-general to him.
The armed forces always identified with the defence secretary more than the ex-general. MR’s biggest relief was when the ex-general resigned from the army.
His other concern was Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara and Negombo. If there was any nonsense these votes are the ones that should be scrutinised. If 75% didn’t turn out to vote throughout the country, Colombo, Gampha, Kalutara and Negombo would have been important due to the recognised fact that they would turn out in numbers to vote and vote the ex-general.
The masses from the heartland and the south came; they voted MR, which he knew they would. Karuna and co effectively blocked minorities from voting actually and stuck to their task. So the minority vote never came into contention.
MR WON handsomely, and though people say he lost votes from the previous presidential election, they are wrong. He won with a much higher margin than that time.
Jayawewa! I HOPE FOR EIGHT YEARS!
SF”s camp was a house built without a foundation ,it never had enough votes to challenge MR except a faint hope if all goes well. Most of those at MR camp were wondering how the opposing team was feeling so confident and thought lot of crossovers may be on the cards. Nothing of that sort happened as the campaign progressed and their boat was stalled without any headwind and was left badly exposed by the election day.
In sheer desperation sf tried different dangerous tricks with double edged sword like the Sunday leader article, affiliation to army, his tough outlook, TNA support and boat rides. Leader article took the army away from him, too much tough talk and closeness to army made him suspicious in public eye and tna support delivered them to MR. Boat ride showed how far he was off from them to the southerners, but the kandyans thought otherwise.
even when they saw that their efforts were not bringing the desired results they made themselves comfortable by turning the Nelsonian eye toward that. It was a bubble and dawn of 27th brought an end to it..
Now an attempt is made at a” khaki revolution” casting doubt at the counting process. Anybody who is familiar with the sri lankan manual counting method knows that at the end of counting each counting center (responsible for about 16000 votes) issue a slip for the party representative with their results. If they care to add the numbers themselves they can come to conclusion of the number of votes. Computers are used only to present this data and all the election officers and party agents are dead tired with the sleepless night by the time results are finally out. the 70 year old commissioner no wonder is feeling the punch , having to supervise all this.At the end of previous election also he made a special appeal to release him as his health was failing, though no body tried to analyze hidden meanings of those words, let alone granting the poor fellow his wish.
still, the opposition is free to practice their skills at fooling the masses .
Dilshan.F 52
“I can say with responsibility that there is rampant ‘kappan’ by Pillyan, Karuna and EPDP in their respective areas and one issue mentioned by my tamil friends in Trinco is that ‘ Why MR is not taking action………..Dilshan”
I had same question on my mind and emphasis on this block earlier. These people also the reason MR had less votes in NE and same time they help him to get some votes in some areas.There could be many reason MR not take any action against their rowdy behaviours. BC they help him to get rid of the LTTE and only eight mmoths pass after the war. If he take any harsh action to them; that might back fire and oppositin and LTTE sympathasiers could use them for their wiked propaganda as MR is racisit and kiced the Tamil politichians out , Also there is no proper Tamil leadership among the Tamils and everybody going in diffrent direction. For a time being MR using thses folks to reach out NE Tamils and as and when times arrives; he will sort these guys out.
“So many Tamils from India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Singapore, Mauritius and South Africa have spoken but Mahinda was the only man through whom some Tamil was heard in that forum. GG Ponnambalam, Lakshman Kadirgamar, Sinnathamby Rajaratnam,Gopalswamy Parthasarathy, Panrutti Ramachandran,Vaiko have all spoken at UN. But “Themadhuraththamizh” (The Honey-sweet Tamil)came from Mahindas lips only………DBS”
Well said DBS. But small correction. Not only from his lips but I think from his geniune heart as well.. Even Vikunthavasan, when he jump into the UN Gallary, he did not say anything in Tamil. Recently I happend to watch a vedio of seminar conducted by the people from TGTE and where Prof.Sornaraja – who is the man nominated by KP along with Uruthira – finding difficulty in speaking in Tamil. He spoke 90% in English to the audiance of 100% Tamils. Among those most of them can’t understand English properly. Are we muppets going to listen these jokkers? some people wasting time and resources with “VK Resoulution”. When these people going to think somthing practically?
# 72. Heshan Peiris
It is a well known fact the army consists of pedophiles, rapists and mass murderess, but unfortunately no one dares to come forward to give evidence.
In some case even though they got the evidence but the government or the IC don’t want to come forward to prosecute the offenders in the name of sovereign state/internal matter advising the state/ army to do their own inquiry, that is the maximum you can get to. It is really a pity.
Justice will be served one day.
The General is challenging the results not because of any rigging at the polling stations. The election was mostly calm and stuffing/rigging did not take place (obviously, stuffing two Million votes is not a simple exercise) but they have manipulated the final results of most important electorates during and after counting. They have manipulated the final figures in the computer. The final figures what have announced for each electorate/district are completely different from actual. (Many UPFA agents at the counting centers have reveled these facts). It is believed that the Elections Commissioner has been threatened and forced to release this manipulated result. Even according to CMEV, they have assaulted the counting officers and agents of the opposition candidate. Some people are so naïve to argue that such things can never take place.
While I enjoyed DBS writing as usual, it also amazes me to realize how the diaspora living far away from SL are ill informed and one sided, just like most of the “elite” colombo crowd, who were living a dream believing the “kata katha” from UNP/JVP led coalition, for the past few month. Having being on the ground talking to the common people of Colombo, I knew MR would win easily as non of them had forgotten what he did to eradicate terrorism from our island.
It’s also sad that what I hear on the media (including in this column) are the misuse of state media and other so called election rigging and violence by the MR regime. Sadly no one questions about the 2 bus loads of Army Deserters that were caught with an opposition MP on their way to intimidate the voters, and create havoc among strong MR areas. No one questions the funding Fonseka received for his campaign. I personally witnessed the number of SF ads on TV and Newspapers, which were either equal or sometimes even greater that the number MR had. For some one with no state funding, it’s not Rocket Science to realize the western world (diaspora and some governments) were seeking a regime change. I am not sure if some of you had read the John Kerry study on SL, where they had identified that such a change is needed in SL for them to be on “friendly” terms. No one questions SF and his son in laws dirty deals using their own company HiCorp to get tenders unfairly. The amounts they made may have ben smaller, but people the colombo elite are quick to forget that this comes from a man who claims to be whiter, squeaky clean than a “swan”. Their answer is that all these were “mud” by MR’s people. If it is so, then I have to say MR’s people happens to have the US state web site under their control, as the ownerships and other details could be obtained by the public, via Oklahoma Secretary of State web site.
Finally how can SL forget Fonseka’s treason on his fellow army, with claims he made on the white flags issue. True or not, what he did was throw his fellow comrades under the bus, just to get what he wanted. He continues to do so by asking Foreign Countries to intervene on Sri Lanka on his behalf and for democracy. This only proves that he was a western puppeteer who was used to change and punish SL for their stance against the west. Fortunately SL people “living in Sri Lanka” got it right and voted in the right man. As far as the other “Sri Lankans living outside of Sri Lanka”… well it really doesn’t matter what they think now… does it”
You can dissect the results in anyway you want, claim what you want but Sri Lankans living in Sri Lanka will see their future get better. I advice all of you to visit Sri Lanka and find it for your self rather than from the western media with ulterior motives on our island of paradise!
You know, I thought you might have been serious until I read that. The fact that Mahinda keeps in his government a corrupt war criminal, recruiter of child soldiers both for the LTTE and pro-SLA militias, whose only contribution to Lankan government has been the kidnapping and murder of a large number of Tamils and Muslims, either for profit or because they represented different political views is scandalous. That you should consider it a great idea is hilarious.
North and East Tamils one more time sends a clear message through this election…… What is current Tamil democratic moderate leaders are going to Say? Already Douglas started his Drama….. .
Unlike politicians peoples won’t forget the past and the peoples will make the politicians and democratic moderators to remember the past through elections.
By the way I feel that it would do a lot of good for the quality of politics in the country if it is mandatory that all candidates contesting Parliament should be able to speak and read both Sinhala and Tamil. What do you think?
—DBS
yes. then most of the MP in parliment will be tamils
Why Sinhalese wont/cant learn Tamil…………..DBSJ
I think that MR won as it supossed to be, but he should think about the major complaint used in opsiton camp (corruption), cost of living it is becoming major burdan in our life, we cant save or invest 10% of our salary, so what is going to be the country saving, MR secure our hopes as nation, stil i hope he secure our hopes, as good living standas, coz i know that only sri lanka is providing true free education and health care (if anybody can quote from counterparts in US,UK, EU)
The Tamils suffered enough and exhausted. They really don’t care who is president who is ruling and what is Sri Lanka’s furture. They now need only basic human rights. It was very interest to see the election propaganda. Both parties was making statement of releasing peoples and remove high security zones and and freedom and movements and let peoples to go back to their home and open roads.
These are basic human rights. It is almost a year democracy brought back to Sri Lankan but still the election promises were bring the basic human rights.
Anyway only good thing the election brought was at least free some peoples from detention camps and free some of political prisoners and open roads. It is going to take another 8 years for another chance and through the 8 years pr elected president is going to rule like a dictator . Tamils are in bottom line and they cannot go below this level. I wonder the peoples who elected him are ready to wait another 8 years for changes. It might be a good punishment for the peoples who were ready to support any body who beat Tamils and who make Tamils to suffer and how show racism.
Anyway politician need some thing to do politics. LTTE is done. What is going to future politics topic in Sri Lanka?
President says he speak tamils therefore Tamils does not have any problems. Do you understand it?
It is not about language it is about the understanding bring the peoples together. Language might help for it but the politician need racism to win elections. So speaking tamil is not going to help at all to solve the problem.
69. dilshan f | January 30th, 2010 at 7:40 am
My children are learning tamil
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Wise decision. All tamil children also should learn sinhalese.
You will be comfortable when you go to a tamil or sinhala area only if you speak the language and the ability to read and write also will be a great advantage. I have learnt this the hard way by going to non english speaking countries. For example in Italy i had a hard time even trying to eat. Forget about getting something you want. You will have to eat whatever dished out to you. there are lot of smiles. hands waving, sign language and then you get the shits when you see what they put before you.
i am very comfortable in any part of Srilanka because i am fluent in tamil and sinhalese. My only regret is that we were not taught sinhalese in our school. The sinhalese alphabets are beautiful but iam not able to read it. I am fluent in sinhalese by speaking it because from my small age i mixed with everyone. I could never see any difference in a boy or girl whether they were sinhalese, tamils, muslims or burghers or malays. So that is why i’am rather shocked at how this country has turned out when i think of my childhood.
So Dilshan, your children also must try to converse in tamil with tamil children. Only by talking it you can become fluent. And get down a tamil paper or magazine so that the read something regularly.
learning Tamil is never going to be a loss. Our location and size is such that we will always be a trading and commercial nation. If the Sinhalese look behind them in the south there is nothing except maldives. So the sinhalese have to go one day northwards to do business. That is they have to do business in the north and east, tamilnadu and kerala. malayalam is also quite similar to tamil. If you get a tamil to do your business for you, then part of your profits are gone and you have to rely on what he says, whereas you can easily do your business within three days and be back at your home. So it is not only ethnic harmony but opens up a lot of business opportunities for future generations if they learn each others languages.
PLEASE DO NOT POST STUFF APPEARING ON OTHER WEBSITES HERE PARTICULARLY WHEN THEY ARE TOTALLY UNRELATED TO THIS ARTICLE……………………..DBSJ
# 62. Ariya
“In Sri Lanka, the votes will be always decided by the Sinhalese, not by any “minority”
“There should not be areas typically Tamil speaking anymore’
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It is clear now why Prabakaran was born in Srilanka .
Tamil separatism is not born by coincidence, not because some people wanted it, but because it is forced on them..
the taste of the pudding is in eating it, sour grapes for fonseka. it’s so sad the opposition had no potent candidate against mahinda.the results overwhelmingly proves majority versus the minority, wanni, jaffna, batti, amparai and n’eliya for the retired general and rest of the nation in popular for mahinda.
what’s ur comment on douggie boys drama of resisgning from ministrial position?
Not worth commenting.It’s “Douggie Boy Drama” as you have stated ………………DBSJ
Iam trying to understand what all this row is about voter fraud and whether there is anything in it in the first place. Interview with Mangala boils it down to the following points in a nutshell
1. Mangala says” However, the country cannot wait for the court ruling because what finally changed an approximately 1.5-million-vote victory for General Fonseka into a 1.8 million vote majority for President Rajapaksa in the early hours of the morning is perhaps the first successfully carried out software/paper rigging in the world.
Q: Does the opposition have proof that there was software/paper rigging?
A: We don’t have proof at the moment As I said earlier details are emerging and there are many questions that require answers
2. We now believe that the results were changed with the connivance of certain senior counting officers in the District Secretariats with whose help the final numbers of the tally sheets were heavily inflated in favour of Mahinda Rajapaksa. We are also receiving information on how these counting officers were handpicked by Basil Rajapaksa before the elections. We are in the process of getting concrete proof about this shocking operation.
3. Q: Are you saying there was no rigging on ground level during the polling period?
A: The traditional, crude forms of rigging never took place where armed hooligans show up in booths and stuff boxes
There were two other forms of rigging at the election. One was the issuing of temporary IDs. The Elections Commissioner ordered the issue of 2.1 million IDs. They were to be issued through the Samurdhi officers, but when the opposition complained it was decided to issue them through the Grama Sevakas. We are now receiving information that apart from the 2.1 million approved ID cards, thousands of false ID cards have been issued to trusted party people. These have been issued in place of dead persons and those who have gone overseas. We believe there might have been 400,000-500,000 votes rigged in this manner. The ID card machine and the laminating machine it is learnt were taken to Temple Trees in the run up to the elections.
Another method that was used, again not at the polling booth but at the counting centers, is to change the bundles. When counting, ballot papers are divided according to symbols and packed into bundles of 50. If a betel leaf ballot paper is placed on top of a swan symbol bundle, that bundle is counted as a betel leaf bundle. This was noticed in certain areas
4.Q: The opposition camp has also said polling agents at counting centers were assaulted and chased away. Have those agents made official complaints?
A: I’m not sure that official complaints were made. They were attacked and chased away. They were not in a proper state to make complaints. Most of the representatives in counting centers were chased away at the time the hi-tech conspiracy was taking place
5. Q: How long would it take for the opposition to gather the necessary proof to take action?
A: We will try to do it in the shortest possible time. It’s going to be a very dangerous investigation because we are dealing with a regime prepared to kill, maim, intimidate or threaten to hang on to power
So we will wait till the opposition brings the proof or gets killed or maimed in the process. The proof is in the pudding. Will it be a caramal, chocolote or vannilla pudding or a mangy pudding.
Thamilan~ 86
I think you are missing the point here. Who said that he got the Phd in Tamil Language. Don’t you appreciate his effort to say few words in Tamil that he doesn’t need to do so? Do you think that you know Tamil100%? My dear friend I don’t know where do you live; But I beg you to help our brothers and sisters live peacefully back home.
Palan # 98
• President says he speak tamils therefore Tamils does not have any problems. Do you understand?
I think if you are Sinhalese and President of SL, You will say the same thing. Do you understand?
Why do you think that Sinhalese has to understand our problem; why can’t we understand their problem? I think If we understand their problem; they will automatically understand our problem. I think many Sinhalese think that Tamils have Tamil Nadu close by and if they got even small autonomy they will finish off us with help of Tamil Nadu. I know that is not correct but we should understand their fear. They have no other country where Sinhala speaking and they have to protect their language and cultural values in SL. That is reasonable fear. But, we are in position to prove them that we are not danger to them any way. But what we think is since civilisation flourished on the Island from the 1st century we have been living in the NE and we have every right to decide to our political destiny. That also reasonable argument and Sinhalese should understand the fact. I think both communities should understand each other and communicate with open heart. Then only we can ease the racial tension and find the viable solution. But now both communities hate each other and blame each other. Both side politicians fueled up the situations and get advantage of this. End of the day, we as ordinary people are suffering. Of course speaking each other language won’t help to resolve the problem straight away but help to communicate each other and understand each other. That is why that could help in long run. That’s why I appreciate MR’s effort and see him as an exemplary leader to all.
99. shankar | 69. dilshan :- Yes that’s the way to go. Sinhalese should learn tamil & vice versa. There are other advantages because when I used to work in Colombo, the Tamil next to me used to say dirty words in Tamil to the chief and tell him it is complementary!! I also believe that there should be incentives given for Tamils to settle down in Sinhala area’s and vice versa.
The Magic behind the Mahinda Rajapakse Victory!!!
It once again proved, while Rajapaksa is an acomplished politician, Fonseka is merely a soldier.
Question is, how the political analysts, Western diplomatic opinion and the overwhelming majority of media pundits got it so very wrong.
The Magic behind the Mahinda Rajapakse Victory!!!
It once again proved, while Rajapaksa is an acomplished politician, Fonseka is merely a soldier.
Question is, how the political analysts, Western diplomatic opinion and the overwhelming majority of media pundits got it so very wrong.
I was discusing the election with an AM hardened tiger sympathiser but PM(Post Mullivaikaal) enlightened person in December and told him that Mahinda will win with about 60-65% and the main reason is that his 40 years experience in ‘electioneering’ compared to Sarath ‘s zero, which would bring surprises. He congratutated me after the election for my predications.
The intriquing thing is the decision of the TNA which is important to be analysed for the future Leaderships of the Tamils to evolve well.
I learnt from one of the ‘political analysers’ in a radio talk show the real reason for TNA backing the former General who anihilated their former boss, when he was grilled repeatedly by the listeners for their decision(in not backing Sivajilingam).
According to him TNA felt that they would be thrown into oblivion by the so called ‘traitors’(ottukulu) comprising Douglas,Karuna,Pillaiyan,Sitharthan etc in North & East who are siding with Mahinda. They wanted the backing and security of a main candidate to ‘visit’ their own ‘electorates’ after a long period(to which they had done nothing during their tenure- a Minister had recently divulged that TNA approached them only to get allocations for foreign trips and scholarships for their children). Sarath was a good choce as Ranil.Hakeen and Mano Ganeshan are already in that camp and appearing with them in their platform, especially in the East , would be a good starter for the Parliamentary election preparations. There would have been some financial inducements too. The rounds of talks with the Mahinda camp was an eye washer and probably Mahinda was aware of that through his Intelligence people.
The best advice for the Tamils would have been to vote for someone like Bahu/Sivaji/Illias and give the second or third preference to either Mahinda or Sarath. I alreday mentioned about this in another article in transcurrents.
There was also misinformations regarding second preference and the pro-tiger medias were asking people to vote for Sarath and give the second choice to Sivaji should they like, hiding the fact that the second preference of the first two candidates won’t be counted or considered ever. This would have made the Tamils to be part of a genuine election process after a very long time and probably forced a second counting, emphasising the strength of the Tamil votes.
Contrary to some comments, there are still substantial number of votes in the North(Daily News’ 3.4% SL tamil voters if a misprint or joke). We cannot yet forget the fact that not long before the authorities kept on saying that there are less than 50,000 people in the Safe Zone(and sending food and medicines for that amount only) and more than 300,000 people turned out even after the dead and cremated ones. They can still be King or Queen makers with a good and honest leadership, but that is entirely a dirrerent issue.
97 & 98 not mine.
I wrote a commet after 107.starting with
‘I was discusing the election with.. ‘
hmmm running out of predonyms.
Challenging the election results now is childish. SF should know this especially as he has the backing of the former Chief Justice Sarath Silva. This is Sri Lanka and let us not forget that.
Tamils voted to SF be’cos they liked a change. So they voted to the lesser evil. Not that they listened to TNA. Tamils in Sri Lanka now are not in a mood to listen to parties like TNA. But I am surprised that still that guy from TNA got 9000 votes. Did he also rig?
The voting pattern is encouraging. Mahinda had the support of Douggie, Murali, Pillaiyar etc. Had SF won, still he had the Tamils votes. So we never lose situation now. I wish that Tamils slowly merge into UNP and SLFP only instead of wasting their votes with Tamil communal parties like TNA, TULF, FP, TC etc.
# 95 Roshan,
Definitely a good idea for national integration.
I am not worried about Sinhalese learning Tamil, I know lot of Sinhalese they speak good Tamil. Yes they can.
However educating Tamil to our Tamil diaspora(current and next generation) is an up hill task…Yes they do not want to learn Tamil but they want to represent Tamil Nationalism in Sri Lanka ( real victims of neo colonism).
76. Fran:–Destiny of all the community in SL is intertwined, Until we sincerely reconcile, respecting political rights and the human rights, it is going to be status quo which will continue to destroy the fabric of the society.Struggle for good governance begins with minority rights.
Comment:-Yes destiny is intertwined. However, the balance part of your representation only takes place in the mythical world. What are the REAL rights of the blacks in USA even with a black president? Rights of aborigines in Australia when they have been on the land 50,000yrs back? Mind you authentic SL history goes back about 3000yrs. The aborigines are much much worst off than Tamil’s. Their language, tradition, life style etc all erased. They are considered an absolute nuisance by Australians. Their mortality rate is the highest among indigenous people of the world. What about the red Indians in USA? The original settlers. In another 25 yrs time there will be no Tibetan people in Tibet as Chinese are colonising the place rapidly with Chinese people and all the big powers are ignoring the issue as China is a world financial super power & they want to do business with China!!
CBI Yet to Get LTTE Chief’s Death Certificate
Eight months into the death of LTTE chief V Prabhakaran, the proclaimed offender in Rajiv Gandhi assassination case, the CBI is yet to receive his death certificate from Sri Lankan authorities.
According to information accessed under the Right to Information Act, CBI said it was still awaiting the certificate of Prabhakaran’s death from the authorities in that country.
The agency, in reply to an RTI query, said investigation in the case is “still in progress”. New in Out kook India.
Why????????????? Who is playing games???
# 112. Don
The aborigines are much much worst off than Tamil’s.
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Do you suggest Srilankan Tamils should take care of themselves from Sinhalese, otherwise they will become like aborigines and Red Indians ?
Good article DBSJ. But your reasoning that you don’t think rigging could have given this big a margin may not be right. It seems to have happened in our friendly nation Iran:
http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html
Sure traditional rigging methods would not have made this possible, but what if the final results were manipulalated at the time of computer input, or names swapped in some instances? Couldn’t this have given as big a margin as anyone wanted??
DBSJ: Just thought of penning a few comments before my voice could be snuffed up through cyber “eves dropping”.
This election was great opportunity for Sri Lanka to forget about the War/LTTE and move forward to inclusive democracy. But the final result indicates otherwise.
Since SF offered “believable change”, a majority of voters wanted to maintain the equation that was formulated on May 18th. I think, as you quite correctly identifies, the insinuation that there was a pact with TNA drove the final nail in the “coffin” because of previous suspicions about “pall bearers” like Mano Ganesan, Ravi Karunanayake, Jayalath Jayawardena, Mangala Samaraweera etc.
The President really ran the race on the last fortnight and behind the scenes, Rajapakse Brothers managed the show impeccably with Wimal Weerawanse driving all arrows with bulls eye precision. There was none in SF camp who could defend and differ.
The President could relegate SF/Opposition to an inglorious history if he agrees to a recount of all votes by a panel representing all candidates. That way everyone will know the real vote, percentage and margin of victory. This will clearly demonstrate that there were no “back office” machinations when the “front office” operation was incredible “walk in the park”.
In my eyes, SF lost my respect for two reasons:
1) Inability to defend the “Mr. Clean” image and to find that the son-in-law has “engineered” his father-in-laws position to sell even a pin. To say he was not aware, to me, is a white lie.
2) Inability to stay CALM and COOL under trying circumstances; at least being in control in Press Conferences and Public Meetings. Also “beating the dead horse” issue of the personal vandetta with Gotabhaya R. I personally like GR, as much as SF.
I hope both SF and the President will read all of these comments and right their ships to weather inevitable storms in their journeys, in the future.
One last thought: India is going to open a Consulate in Jaffna; M. K. Narayan is conferring with M. Karunanidhi; India is asking the GOSL to deovolve power to North-East and President MR is telling wait till the GE is over. How do you read all of this with majority Tamil vote gone to SF?
Some Rajabaksa worshippers make Rajabaksa’s “Tamil killer speech drama” as a massive good will gesture towards reconciliation.
But the speech is actually exploited by some Rajabaksa worshippers to bring in more Tamil votes to Rajabaksa regime but it miserably failed due to the lack of any progress in the ground to back it.
Still detention of Tamil people in internment camps, still the paramilitary rule, still fear of life and no progress in political front for the long standing issues.
If Rajabkasa continuously endorse the paramilitary rule led by the warlords in the north east, he is definitely loosing his base in north east.
Excellent article DBS.It is high tojme the Tamils in North and East should kick off these TNA old people like Sampanthan so that some young blood will take over and make use of the opputunity to salvage the Tamils in North and East.It is a pitty starting from GG to Sampanthan has betrayed the Tamils.I hope the young generation will kick off these TNA stooges and form a new party to see that the North and East is developed.
When the SLFP was being orgnised in the 70,s by Alfred Durayappah this same stooges called him a traitor what did they do now.They should have played a neutral game.I have my fullest confidence that the President will put these stooges at their place so that they will not be able to enter parliment at the next election.
I am not sure how many of these got payed by the oppostion .
Mavady ~ 104
Tamil was ‘also made an official langage’ more than 30 years ago. But even now a tamil cannot correspond with the government in his language, enter a complaint at a police sation in tamil, argue his case in courts in tamil,read government circulars/directives/road signs/maps/application forms in tamil.Even tamil MPs are sent letters by parliament in tamil.
Recently a tamil doctor’s application for registration was rejected by the Sri Lanka Medical Council as his birth certificate was in tamil.
I had to pass 8th Standard Sinhala Language written examination in 1961 to continue in public service, & Sinhala Oral test in 1963 to continue in my post in public service.I taught my subordinates down south in oral sinhala.
Now tamil names of places in the northeast are being ‘converted’ to sinhala. Apart from this, buddhism, the religion of the sinhala majority is being thrust on the people of the northeast – by the planting of buddha statues & construction of buddhist temples.But, at the same time, christian churches and pastors in the south are being attacked
by mobs led by buddhist monks. Hindu temple festivals are being stopped/banned on days sacred to buddhists.
Thus, you should realise that the president reading a few words from transliterated texts is a mere political stunt to fool people like you.
dear jey,
i would not say it was a foregone conclusion that mr will win.i was assuming that sf given the fact that he had the backing of opposition parties and he could get sinhalese to vote for him and with tamil votes he will win.rather it is unfortunate that mr has won.i advocate change becoz change will instill the fear of people in politicians or else politicians will become dictators without caring about the welfare of the people.mr reminds me of vikrams role in the tamil movie anniyan if u had seen that movie u would have come across a scene where prakash raj will be interrogating vikram he will be like a poor ambi at one moment and psycho at the other like wise mr tried to act like a good guy to tamils and he was their own guy to majority sinhalese voters.sinhalese have to change if they want to join the global mainstream they need to change their racial outlook they have to provide political space to tamils they need to accept the merger of north and east and if sri lanka is gonna see peace it will see tsunami of different sorts.tsunami of indian investment into srilanka.already bharati has started its operations in telecom sector,life insurance corporation has started its operation in the island,news is that india has decided to open a consulate in jaffna and close cooperation between india and srilanka will definitely be a big boost to both countries.as regards tamil voting it shows that tamils have not warmed up to mr .let us be very clear douglas devananda,karuna,pillayan are not representatives of tamils as long as they associate themselves with sinhalese politicians now that elections are over ltte is no longer in the picture they need to join hands with other tamil politicians to get the rights of tamils then only their credibility will be established let them do it and tamils will support them.
I go to Sri Lanka every December.
My personal observations
1. People seemed to be a lot more relaxed after the LTTE was defeated.
2.Children in Sinhalese dominant areas have to learn Tamil – it is compulsory. For the first time I saw children from Colombo actually conversing in Tamil, with children in the North East – That gave me great hope for a Sri Lanka that is united.
3. Families in the East are seeing major development projects.
4. My request to the diaspora. Lets build on this. Lets fund projects where Sri Lankans start thinking of themselves as Sri Lankans – not Tamils of Sinhalese
Please lets join hands and move forward. There is no need to hurt each other.
Don #112
I am afraid you are correct, especially when flattening and crowded ( and hot) India and China slowly encroach into Sri lanka physically, economically and politically in years and decades to come , Srilankans may end up as aborigines of Australia and Native Americans. After all we are minority in front of the mammoth countries. Aren’t We?
Thamilan # 119
Thanks for coming back and I’m really sorry if my comment hurt you. I don’t disagree with your points you highlighted here and they are not new to me. If you have read my comments to DBS previous articles; you know where I stand. I think again you missed my point that I try to say. Even though that is for political stunt the “EFFORT” he (MR) made was really appreciated. Compare to the other Sinhalese politicians such as Sril Mathew, JR,SF……….etc who spoke racist comments against Tamil openly, MR try to do something differently to attract Tamil people. Even that could be political motive and try to make fool people like me. I’m not a genius like you to read his mind but hope for the best. We are always good in mickeyout of others as fool or modaia and we still not realised who is real fool or modaia
Among the majority of Tamils who voted for Fonseka there are two classes.
One is the Colombo Tamils who are well off English speaking people who are traditional UNP voters. They like the LTTE and VP but they would have never gone to live under VP even if the LTTE was give full independence to rule the North East.
The others are the people in the North and the East who are not so educated ,mainly poor and brain washed by the LTTE for over three decades.
Once the North and the East are develpoed and these people are able to live their lives like they used to prior to the LTTE, they will support the President or the successors the President’s party.
The first lot however, will never change though they are the ones to benefit most as the country developl rapidly in the current peaceful environment. Unfortunately even the enemies of the Government can enjoy the benefits that the Goverrnment delivers., and it is democracy.
Hi DBS Jeyaraj
A lot of tamil people suported TNA and listened to them by voting against Mahinda. Do you think that it conveys that the tigers still enjoy considerable support among tamils? Please take this into consideration that the tigers are not a potent force anymore to threaten tamil people. In this election tamils voted without any fear, especialy without any pressure and threat from tigers.
The issue of “Tamil voting” cannot be viewed so simplistically………….DBSJ
DBS Jeyaraj
Can you please elaborate? Thanks. Probably you may write an article on Tamil People mindset living in North and East after LTTE was defeated.
As surya 6 commented,
Tamils population is draining. There are lot of reasons.
1. killed fellow militants in the name of politics
2. Killed tamil voices in the name of traitors
3. Migration to western countries
4. Refugee migration
5. Late marriages
6. Dowry system
7.Caste system
8. Converts
Please understand the importance of Tamil Population in order to win any election
Those who blame MR for rigging must carry out a survey on village level.Most of the households in sinhala viilages are pro mahinda and SLFP.Therefore results matches with ground level factors.THose who accused were not present in counting centres. I was in one polling division and it was absolute free and fair.A copy of the results sheets of each counting centres were given to opposition agents .THEY can be added and match with official results.Thiis nonsense . This election has highlighted the conducting research on opinion and adjust strategis accordingly.
according to my opinion resons for victory
Most of the villagers have become SLFers,VERY high propagandas programe was carried out to potray that the real cause for the war victory as mahinda,SF himself admitted this before the defection,GOVT created opinion that SF is a cruel person so many women did not vote for him. I think opposition shuld build an alliance and made KARU jayasooriya prime minister candidate.
James Thenuwara(Tea Town) where are you’ ?.
You promised that you will be back after the elections.
I hope you weren’t gobbled up by the White Van.
114. sjoseph 122. Fran
NO not by any means I am suggesting that Tamils will end up as aborigines or Native Indians. If I got Fran’s argument in 76 correct, that is, that until SL gets political & human rights for the minorities right, there can be no meaningful reconciliation. So my response in 112 was that aborigines, native Indians, Tibetans are much worst off than the Tamils & therefore the Tamils should be some what contended because of this. Moreover Tamils have been in the fore front of the SL independence movement etc & unlike native Indians and aborigines have held top positions in SL with great respect. For example, Luxshman Kadiragarmer could have easily ended up as PM of SL.
However, if Tamils expect moral correctness from our political leaders and for them to do the correct thing by the minorities, I don’t thing such things exit any where in this world. So we must be realistic. We got to change tack. Tamils need to get smarter. Because how is it that my rich Tamil friends are doing so well in SL? There is a way and they need to get to that path without coming into confrontations because they have just lost everything. I don’t care a toss for diaspora but my heart bleeds to the poor sinhala and Tamil boys who lost their lives in this worthless conflict.
Election Commissioner has confirmed that the counting of ballot papers was done manually and results of each counting centre was entered on five self-carboned papers and three of same were given to the counting agents of the three top candidates.
Therefore, without making wild allegations, why can’t the SF camp add the number of votes indicated in all such self-carboned papers received from all the counting centres and tell us the total.
General Sarath Fonseka can prove his case easily by adding up the number of votes he received from the certified votes by the Assistant Commissioners of Election at the Counting Centres as provided to him by his accredited representatives.
If this figure is different from the figure declared by Commissioner of Elections then there is a case for rigging votes as he claims.
He should prove by his utterances and his conduct how patriotic he is.
Did he fight LTTE to take revenge on them because they tried to kill him as they (LTTE) tried to kill Gotabaya Rajapakse as well?
Why is he holding Green Card if he is faithful to mother Lanka? Is he having one leg in Sri Lanka and another leg in America?
Is it true that he was given four extensions after he retired since 2005?
As a General on extension why he was not satisfied when he was given Chief of Defence Staff position?
Did he ask for 30 perches of land in Colombo when he was offered 10 Perches in Colombo on his retirement from service?
Were his two daughters educated in America from the money donated by Mahinda Rajapakse from the President Fund?
Was he using Colombo 7 office, satellite phone etc after he retired from office?
Why did he accuse the very army he led to war with LTTE for Human Rights Violations only after he entered politics? Shouldn’t he have taken action against his subordinates for violating army discipline when he was in power?
What are the secrets of Sri Lanka he is going to expose to foreign governments in his personal interest and after his defeat from Presidential election? Are these military secrets? How vulnerable Sri Lanka will be for foreign invasion?
In the interest of mother Lanka, will he answer these questions?
Karan, Mr. Anandasangaree’s statement is already posted on http://www.transcurrents.com.Why are you trying to post that here?Sorry but I’ve deleted it…………..DBSJ
I don’t think the average Tamil in north east is against President Rajapaksa , they were against his partners…. Douglas Devananda in the north, who still responsible for extorting money from the Tamil population , it’s no secret that he provided safe passage to IDP’s who were falsely detained after paying ransom to him. In the East, his partner Minster Karuna …. people in the east have still not forgotten the atrocities he committed when he was with the LTTE … there after together with Piilyan started the kidnapping Tamils both in Colombo and NE for ransom….and carried out host of killing of Tamils. Muslims hate Karana and Pilliyan in the east. They all have one thing in common they have more Tamil blood than any other politicians in SL….. that’s why President Rajapaksa lost in NE. I am not suggesting he should have partnered with TNA … but I think he would have had a better chance alone.
Dear dbsj,
I have come to the conclusion that the capacity for intellectual honesty is a luxury only afforded to the so-called ‘first world’. When people have fear and hunger, it’s all about WIIFM (whats in it for me). What next? You just continue to do the amazing work you do! Let your life be a resounding example of a truly ‘Sri Lankan Identity’. Good ‘ol Sri Lanka – which our political monkeys try hard to muck up time after time…
There’s not much media freedom around here to talk abt. – they are clearing up what ever’s left of it too. The ruling family are on track to get set for a few decades ahead!!
Esto perpetua!
#129
I hope the current leader of SL will make a smarter decision at least this stage for the sake of our younger generation, by addressing the root cause of problem.
Comment # 125.
The Tamil votes for Fonseka in the North are a combination of UNP and Tiger/TNA supporters.It hard to say which is the higher.
If we are to believe your comment about so much Tamil support to the TNA, how come 700.000 Tamils in the Northern province and 500,000 in the Jaffna district did not listen to Sampathan?
ELECTION COMMISSIONER SAID IT ALL. DIDN’T HE?
HE IS A DISGRACE TO ALL SRI LANKANS.
IT’S SAD TO SEE THE MEN WHO FOUGHT TOGETHR TO WIPE OUT TERRORISM ARE FIGHTING AGAINST EACH OTHER NOW.
PEOPLE SHOULD REMEMBER IT WAS SARATH FONSEKA WHO BELIEVED THAT THE TIGERS COULD BE WIPED OUT AND IMPLEMENTED STRATEGIES ACCORDINGLY TO FIGHT THE WAR.
WE SHOULD BE GRATEFUL TO HIM FOR LEADING PEACEFUL LIVES NOW WITHOUT WORRYING ABOUT WHETHER YOU WILL REACH HOME SAFELY OR NOT.
HE IS A TRUE SON OF THE SOIL.
A GREAT PATRIOT INDEED.
135. Fran:- If we expect others to make a climate for our prosperity, the day will never dawn. But if we use our determination and have the correct attitude, we can succeed under the most trying circumstances. Obama and Mandela are examples of this. I always had great hope for SL people and continue to do so. We got to be optimistic, never give up the forward vision.
If General Fonseka went to retire gracefully, he would have gone to any corner of Sri Lanka and people would have worshiped him as a hero and thrown flowers at his feet.
Now he has disgraced himself by being a puppot of Ranil, Mangala, Arjuna. Chandrika and the clan, if he goes out in anywhere in Sri Lanka, what people are going to throw at him is anybody’s guess. (Kakka, shoes, spit, tomatoes)
He is a grown man of nearly sixty years , and he should have thought hard about the repercussions before taking a decision to run for the Presidency.
Now what has happened is that for a person who has given so much to this country, cannot go out as a proud Sri Lankan. It is really a pathetic situation, and this can happen only in Sri Lanka.
I think what TNA did is the right for Tamils at least they build one voice for them
As it is now the Govt started building Buddhist temple in north and east this has to be handled correctly by Tamils. I still don’t know why the Singhalese can’t understand the Tamilian psychology
Some solution has to be given other wise Tamils will be the 2nd class citizen in SL as Mr SF stated before the election
Mahinda has to bring the Diaspora crowd also in to the picture because changing of 50% of them at least will help him to develop the county faster.
Tamils also should thanks SF because during the voting campaign some good thinks have happen to Tamils (removal of safety zone etc.. )
My Singhala brothers also should agree that TNA has all the right to fight for the political right of the Tamil and they should support all acceptable solution if tabled
Sri Lankan Go together
Don – #129.
The only part I agree with is that SL had a brilliant opportunity of greatly resolving our ethnic divide in possibly appointing Lakshman Kadirigama as our PM. Sadly our current president MR vehemently opposed this- threatening every possible consequence in the book!
We can learn from India in this respect- a truly multi-religions/ multi-ethnic society. Look at their PM’s and Presidents- even past Cricket captains.
#135- I agree with you, hope these smart-asses that seem to stoop to such low levels to stay in power would make an genuine effort to deal with the root causes.
One things’ for sure, bull-shit gestures like speaking a couple of sentences in tamil @ the end of a political tirade aint gonna solve anything. Though I also firmly believe we’d make huge progress if we all learnt a 3rd language whilst using English as a link-language perhaps.
PEACE!
Kalu Albert, your Sali’s bro. yeah?
Don # 138
” We got to be optimistic, never give up the forward vision”
I agree with this statement. people are resilient and work hard and move forward. They will continue to strugggle to win back the natural rights they are born with. ( this is true for all the communities in SL). I have no iota of doubt.
Where I differ from you is, the process can be shorter and less painful, if the King of the feudal democracy can make better decisions for his poor subjects.
In regard to Obama and Mandela. The USA, and South Africa are different world. Well, this is Sri lanka.I really doubt we will ever see a Sri lankan Madela. He will not survive to become one.
141. jack dee :- Mate, I don’t cry over spilled milk or go back and rave about past injustices because it blocks my forward progress and creates anger and revenge. We cannot change the past but certainly the future. If you see unbiased, what happened since 1948 independence, you will find BOTH the Tamil and Sinhala leadership made grave mistakes and even today do so. TNA supporting one side current elections and VP not taking up the offer of peace when he was offered north and east on a platter. BUT I don’t blame either party. I believe even VP tried to serve his people using the only way he believed. Further if the majority party in SL were Tamils and Sinhalese were minority, do you think Sinhalese would have been treated differently? No way, because all of us are just human. How come there are so many Tamils in SL doing exceptionally well? Some are even living abroad and Sinhalese are running their businesses!! How come when I lived years in Colombo I found very very little friction between the two communities? I am not surprised when people say 65% of Tamils live with Sinhalese. If you care to read Churchill or Roosevelt lives, the greatest western leaders in the last 50 years, they were great BS artist and just put uncle MR to shame. What this means is there are no morally right leaders or non BS artist. That is the world. May be Lee Kwang yee is one exception but 99% the leaders are corrupt or self serving. We don’t find this out unless we get close & carefully study what they are doing. So if the Tamils without depending on these BS artist track their future path they will win. But the current dilemma is who will lead them. Tamils got to clear up their act. No point in blaming others. That only means we are allowing others to guide our future and dependent upon them. By playing the blame game we are not going to get anywhere. My attitude is, if any body is a BS artist or a garbage truck, leave them along and I will show my colours and competency. This applies to individuals as well as groups of people.
DBS,
It is being reported that an Army officer close to General Fonseka has been arrested for Lasantha Wickramatunga’s murder. When it happened last year, there was wide spread speculation that an Army unit close to the Army commander was responsible. So this appears to be consistent. Any comments?
i agree wholeheartedly with General Fonseka & whoever stands by him saying the election was rigged. i know for a fact it was. i am one of those who never exercised my vote since 18, but this time around was determined to do so, along with several thousands of others (as the figures say – there was a tremendous voter turnout) election day dawns with everyone’s hopes raised high that by the following day, we would see the dawn of a NEW, corruption-free (at least) era. everyone on the streets, in buses, spoke unabashedly of it. even those at the military checkpoints were unusually cheerful & courteous, saying that ‘hawasata honda wei’. i talk from personal experience (we dont have the luxury of personal vehicles, so get the added bonus of actually talking with any & everyone on the street – & no one needs to pretend!). people went out at the crack of dawn by the DROVES to ensure their vote was cast prior to going to work..literally everyone favoured the General, so how on earth is the result that ensued, possible???????????? and why terrorize people for their voting preference???
The recent advisory opinion issued by the SC regarding the commencement of MR’s second term gives rise to several legal issues.
1.This is only a “advisory opinion’ not a “judgment” and has no legal validity.
2.As per the constitution an advisory opinion can be sought from SC only by a serving president. As MR has not taken oath for his second term he has no legal authority to sought the opinion from SC.
3.The CJ & majority of the judges that issued this opinion were appointed in violation of the constitution in the absence of a Constitutional council.
4.Therefore the “judgment” issued by the former CJ in response to the fundamental rights petition of Ven.Omalpe Sobitha still stands. According to this verdict a presidents tenure commences from the date election results are declared. That is why CBK had to go home and MR got the presidency in 2005. Otherwise CBK could have occupied that post till Nov 2006.
5.Therefore if we go according to the recent advisory opinion of the SC, MR’s 1st term becomes invalid.
6. According to the constitution a president should take oaths within 2 weeks of his election. As the former CJ’s judgment remains valid, if MR postpones his oath his election results become invalid from 10th Feb 2010. Therefore the office of the Sri Lankan president becomes vacant from 11th February 2010.
Very pertinent observation.Will somebody illuminate us further please?…………DBSJ
I am posting the views of Asanga Welikala and Rohan Edirisinghe on this issue as separate post
!47-Nalaka
As the former CJ’s judgment remains valid, if MR postpones his oath his election results become invalid from 10th Feb 2010
Very pertinent observation.Will somebody illuminate us further please?…………DBSJ
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I will illuminate further as Iam a dispute resolution expert. If anyone says the election was invalid, he will be arrested, tortured, his legs broken, his head broken, and his house bombed.
Ref Comment 147 I am absolutely dumbfounded that Ranil or Sampathan, with all their legal resources did not pick these points.
May be they did, and are keeping quiet so that the President who was elected with this unbelievable majority will automatically become non President on the 11 Feb 2011.
Why on earth Fonseka ,Ranil the others are stressing out calling public disobedience campaigns and hartals. Also the Army officers who are under arrest were absolute dumb wits to be in the current situation in light of these legal developments pointed out bytthe poster.
SC is the highest legal authority in sri lanka . therefore regardless of constitutional council is enacted or not SC’s interpretation will be the final verdict. parliament and other councils may enact laws but they will not have any authority to interpret the laws.
144 Don. largely agree. As a Sinhalese, I’m just sad we missed that opportunity when LK was alive.
It is foolish to bash TNA for supporting SF. TNA was trying to alleviate the pain of the people behind the barbed wires, un-accounted detention camps and indefinite detention of thousands of Tamils. MR did not agree to any of the conditions with the TNA to get the support of Tamils in return. So, the obvious choice for the TNA was to go with SF. Like you mentioned it is not the love towards SF.
#152-Jey
MR did not agree to any of the conditions with the TNA to get the support of Tamils in return. So, the obvious choice for the TNA was to go with SF.
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As DBSJ pointed out they had another alternative, which was to tell the Tamil people to make their choice. Obvious advantage of this policy is then they are neutral and can continue from where they left off before the elections. Now to see Sampanthan say he is wanting to come for talks with Mahinda is pathetic. And he wants his northeast merger also to boot. Maybe he is just pandering to international opinion, i don’t know. The horse has bolted and he is closing the barn door.
As for TNA’s negotiations with Mahinda, maybe they asked for too much too soon, including the north east merger. You must be realistic in your demands, especially when the other fellow is facing his electorate.
Wendy- wake up! your so called friends from colombo does not represent the whole of Sri Lanka.If you ever in your life tried to speak to the common man from the villages you would realize how stupid you have been to theink that the elite colombians were decision makers in this country. I feel very very sorry for you and your so called colombian friends , neighbours and your fellow dreamers. The majority has spoken!! Accept defeat and try to move on!!!!!
Consequent to the interesting questions raised by Nalaka at comment#147 I forwarded them to two experts at Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) in Colombo for their opinion. Both Asanga Welikala and Rohan Edirisinghe were kind enough to respond. Incidently both were called upon to testify before courts on this issue of the President’s second term to assist court by providing expert opinion
I am posting their responses on the issue here -
Asanga Welikala
DBS,
My answers as follows; Rohan’s may differ:
1. This is an interesting issue that Rohan and I discussed after our submissions – someone else brought it up also. I am not entirely persuaded that the argument that an Advisory Opinion has no legal validity can be accepted with total certainty, although there is a live question as to what would prevail between a judgment proper and an Advisory Opinion if they are in conflict. Note also that the government treated the SC’s Advisory Opinion to the effect that the Sri Lankan Constitution and law was in compliance with the ICCPR (for the purposes of the GSP+ extension) in 2008 delivered to the President under the same procedure as binding and conclusive. We have not yet seen yesterday’s Advisory Opinion (if we ever will), so we don’t know how the court dealt with this (or if it did at all; but we certainly raised it as an issue in Rohan’s submissions to Court).
2. This argument is almost certainly wrong. MR’s first term had not concluded at the time he made the reference – as confirmed by the Advisory Opinion in line with the AG’s submission, our own, as well as the plain meaning of the provisions of the Third Amendment.
3. True that the CJ as well as certain other Justices of the SC have been not been appointed under the terms of the Seventeenth Amendment. Thus while we can agree that these appointments are unconstitutional, insisting on such a point would be akin to denying the existence of the SC.
4. Once again, we have not seen yesterday’s Advisory Opinion, so we have no way of knowing how the court has dealt with the decision in Omalpe’s case. We suspect they might just have ignored it. However, while Sarath Silva CJ’s decision in Omalpe’s case can be welcomed from the perspective of democratic principle and Westminster convention, it patently flies in the face of the constitutional text of the Third Amendment. The resultant position is the difficult one of preferring whether to uphold the text of the Constitution (given the provenance of JR’s Third Amendment, clearly anti-democratic and self-serving, but it is the Constitution nevertheless) or whether to ignore the text and uphold the democratic principle that the power/privilege given to the incumbent of calling an early (re)election at a time politically advantageous to him, must be countervailed with the requirement that he forfeits the remainder of his (first) term if re-elected (but the Constitution makes an express departure from this). Compounding this of course is Sarath’s questionable motives as well as questionable reasoning – he ignored the Third Amendment by unpersuasively arguing that the text was hopelessly ambiguous and hence devoid of meaning, so as to contrive the basis for his conclusion. I don’t agree with that, and while the relevant provision is convoluted, it is not impossible to interpret its meaning.
5. I am not sure what is meant here, but if I understand it correctly, it is wrong.
6. This conclusion is dependent on whether we can accept the argument being made by the person making the comment. For the reasons I have mentioned above, I do not agree with him.
Hope this helps.
Best,
Asanga
ROHAN EDIRISINGHE
I agree with Asanga’s comments. Why didnt this person make these submissions on Monday before the Supreme Court? The absence of anyone who would defend the Sarath Silva interpretation in Omalpe Sobitha v Dayananda Dissanayake was significant ( I reminded the court of its existence and urged them to distinguish, refuse to follow, or overrule it) and we are indeed lucky that the court did not follow the interpretation advocated by Nihal Jayamanne and DS Wijesinghe who represented Sarath Kongahage and Mendis Rohanadeera respectively, that MR’s second term begins in Nov 2011.
Points 2 and 5 have no foundation whatsoever. The other points are interesting.
Cheers!
Rohan
Today – Feb4th is a “Kari Naal” for SL Tamils
153. shankar
The leaders have to lead the followers one way or other. They can not sit on the wall and watch. TNA’s demands may have been too much. But it was widely expected that SF would win the election. It is still a mastery about the election results. Think about this way, the common tend of the Tamils in terms of voting was to vote for a change. If TNA had been neutral, with the same result, MR could now ask the TNA why did you not support me before (instead of being neutral) and now coming to me.
Now, TNA is trying to talk to MR, they have to. This is not pathetic. This is politics. The elected members of the people should engage with the government regardless of what their political activities have been. It is the responsibility of the government too to get engaged with the MPs of people. They can be different in opinions but they should not be ashamed to work with each other.
very interesting questions were raised by the reader Nalaka. Very good of DBS to follow it up by requesting expert opinion from Mr. Welikala and Edirisinghe. My thanks to you all .
Nalaka’s interpretation in # 147 is interesting but does not correspond with Article 31 (3) (d) of the Constitution on the commencement of the term of office of an elected President: (Note : bold letters added for emphasis)
Article 31 (3) (d) of the Constitution provides that -
“The person declared elected as President at an election held under this paragraph shall, if such person-
(i) IS THE PRESIDENT IN OFFICE, hold office for a term of six years COMMENCING ON SUCH DATE IN THE YEAR IN WHICH THE ELECTION IS HELD (being a date after such election) or in the succeeding year, as corresponds to the date on which his first term of office commenced, WHICHEVER DATE IS EARLIER ; or
(ii) IS NOT THE PRESIDENT IN OFFICE , hold office for a term of six years COMMENCING ON THE DATE ON WHICH THE RESULT OF SUCH ELECTION IS DECLARED.”
Article 31(d) has been drafted to favor the President in office to allow him to continue for some time under his previous term, even though rightfully such term comes to an end when an election is declared. Furthermore, when a President makes a Proclamation under Article 31 (3) (a) (i) indicating his intention to appeal to the people for their mandate for a second term without waiting for the initial term to expire, he willingly gives up the remaining term of office in the process. This seems to have been the basis of former CJ Sarath Silva’s judgment in the Omalpe Sobitha case.
However, the drafters of the Constitution have made clear the rights enjoyed by the incumbent President, however wrong it may be.
The other important point in this regard, is the time or exact date of taking office as President. This is given in Article 32 (1) as follows:
“The person elected or succeeding to the office of President shall assume office UPON TAKING AND SUBSCRIBING THE OATH or making and subscribing the affirmation, set out in the Fourth Schedule, in Sri Lanka before the Chief Justice or any other Judge of the Supreme Court.”
Therefore, in the case of an incumbent President, his new term will commence in the year the election is held, as from the date he takes the oath of office.
On the other hand, if the person so elected was not the incumbent President, his term would commence as from the date the election results are declared. (i.e. under the just concluded elections, with effect from January 27, 2010).
The next point is the VACATION OF OFFICE of President, which is given in Article 38 (1). A newly elected President is deemed to have vacated office if he “willfully fails to assume office, within 2 weeks from the date of commencement of his term of office” .
The above Article would therefore apply in two different ways for an incumbent President and for a person who was not the President in office. In the case of an incumbent President, who is elected for a second term, as long as he takes his oath of office during the year of election, the time limit contained in Art. 38(1) will not run. But in the case of a person so elected who was not the President in office, unless he takes his oath of office within 2 weeks from the date of commencement of his term, (i.e. date of declaration of results) he would be deemed to have vacated office. For example: if SF was declared the President, he would have had to take his oath on or before 10 February 2010.
Nalaka in his interpretation in # 147, had not taken into account the clever drafting of Art. 31 (3) (d) which gives the incumbent President an unfair advantage over his competitors. The former CJ in his judgment in Omalpe Sobita’s case had attempted to correct a wrong, which however had been disregarded in the present opinion of 7 SC judges, by sticking to the Constitutional provisions word to word.
We can only comment that it is a clear example of how the powers of a President can go against the franchise of the people, as the President under our Constitution can and seems to have even influenced the legislature (as seen above). It makes one think whether we really have a separation of powers under the Sri Lankan Constitution?
•159. Rathnavali We can only comment that it is a clear example of how the powers of a President can go against the franchise of the people, as the President under our Constitution can and seems to have even influenced the legislature (as seen above). It makes one think whether we really have a separation of powers under the Sri Lankan Constitution?
==================================
Ratnavali, my deepest admiration to your comment and DBS thank you for this discussion although of course we all know MR will continue ruling immaterial of these “mundane” matters as he would describe them. As the SL constitution comes under siege, my thoughts go back to my grandfather who was supposed to have helped as a young junior lawyer to draft up the first constitution of SL with Ivor Jennings and Sir Arthur Ranasinge of Kegalle SL.
#157-Jey
Your quote”But it was widely expected that SF would win the election. ” unquote.
It was widely expected by the international community and the colombians, not by the rural masses. We all know that the rural masses are the preponderant majority and decide our elections. That might be one reason we have not become part of the developed world yet, that is the price to pay for universal franchise which is after all the fair way of doing things. This is heading for something like Thailand’s Thaksin who was popular in the rural areas but unpopular in Bangkok, which toppled him finally, because it is the urban crowd that pay most of the taxes and therefore have the financial clout. Just like in Thailand everything will depend on the military, whose side they are going to support.
Further your quote”If TNA had been neutral, with the same result, MR could now ask the TNA why did you not support me before (instead of being neutral) and now coming to me”unquote.
Isn’t that better than to be asked why are you coming to me now. Why don’t you go to SF? He will give you everything including the north east merger.
Being neutral is not a political obstacle. In fact businessman do that very often paying both parties. It is the people who are voting not the politicians, and respecting their views is the right thing to do. TNA could have explained to Mahinda that due to the war they were in a dilemma as the peoples mood was not conducive for them to support him. Mature politician that he is Mahinda would have understood. Mahinda will do something for the Tamils but that will not be due to the TNA, but due to India which has wisely had a good relationship with him.
With all these allegations and counter allegations flying around can some one please tell me who is the wolf in sheep’s clothing? Is it Mr or SF?. One of them certainly is from what i can see. There can’t be so much smoke without a fire. And please when you answer this put your emotions aside and let us know in an unbiased and professional manner.
Then could it be also that both are sheep in wolf’s clothing. The small dogs are the ones that are always barking their heads off due to their sense of insecurity, while the big and dangerous ones are calm and quiet.
Although I was thinking of not writing anything here this time, I decided to put down a few things I got to know simply to clear the air. One will notice what I know somewhat confirms what DBSJ has already told.
1. The MR team ran two extensive research into the electorate this time. One was through an Indian company and one through a carefully selected local team headed by a minister. While the Indian research was way off and was recognised to be incorrect early on, (this research said MR would win by 63%) the local research was quite thorough and was scientifically accurate due to the methods used. (I will elaborate later if required)
2. The second research was very accurate and the MR team knew with certainity that they will loose nuwaraeliya, N&E districts except for Ampara which they thought they will win. (In Ampara the research was not correct due to incorrectness of the sample)
3. This discovery resulted with a certain level of outrage from some people in the MR campaign who were disheartened by the lack of support from N&E peolpe despite the visible improvements in their quality of life under this govt. Some even suggested at a meeting that this ‘extra attenion and funding’ govt is providing for N&E should be pulled out.
But MR personally expressed his view that the development in the N&E shuld continue as it is a mistake to not focus on these areas and it was also considered as beneficial for the image of the country.
Lower levels of the MR campaign looked at damage control in N&E and discouraging the voters from voting was seen as the best method. If this was actually put into practice or if people didnt vote due to their mistrust in both parties is somewhat unclear.
MR campaign had very early on recognised that large scale vote rigging was not possible this time. So there was no major attempt at it any way. Whatever, incidents happened were localised and was not a part of the masterplan.
The research which was actually done three times during the campaign also recognised an unusually high support to SF in the new voters. Also, research into the communication foundout that simply highlighting the positive aspects of MR was not enough. This resulted with two things:
a) highlighting negative aspects of the competitor. (Sometimes through mud slinging & a certain degree of subliminal communication such as documentaries about Hitler on TV)
b) highlighting the history of the UNP past such as 88/89 period to the new vote pool who knew very little or nothing about it.
For Nuwaraeliya the age old system of ‘convincing’ the estate supervisor / kankanams was used for damage control.
The point I am trying to make is that for two reasons, the claim made by SF campaign about overturning the victory through rigging is false.
1. MR campaign knew with a certain degree of certainity about their overall win. Hence it was not essential to launch a large scale rigging operation.
2. The logistical impracticality of the rigging operation was recognised early on.
http://www.nigerdeltacongress.com/rarticles/rigging_in_nigeria.htm
The article given above describes the various forms of election rigging that is possible and that has been put to practice in Nigeria. The ones called Satellite voting, Goal Keeper’s method and Technical rigging may have happened during the recently concluded Presidential elections, going by what we hear from various sources.
The only way to prevent it from happening again during the parliamentary elections is to ensure that the Elections Officers are not bought over, since without their participation no election rigging can ever take place.
# 161. shankar
“Mahinda will do something for the Tamils but that will not be due to the TNA, but due to India”
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- What a pity ! Srilankan mindset either rely on India or China .
#165-Joseph
What a pity ! Srilankan mindset either rely on India or China .
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What a pity, India has to rely on the US for nuclear technology and goes with the begging bowl to Australia for uranium. What a pity that Australia,Japan and south korea and taiwan rely on the US for their defence and security. What a pity that so many African countries are now relying on China for economic survival. What a pity that the Rajapakshes rely on India to save them from a Fonseka coup. In fact what a pity that everyone has to rely on someone else bigger than them in this unequal world.
and sjoseph, as i am a poet as well as a dispute resolution expert specialising in Srilankan disputes, i have composed a poem especially for you
What a pity
in a city
knowlege can be so shitty
it goes straight into the potty.
Your topic at dbsjeyaraj.com ” The Magic behind the Mahinda Rajapakse Victory was interesting
Shocking incident. Thanks for the revelation
Good informative content, enjoyed reading your post but I found Lanka situation troubling