But you keep on forgetting that Prabakharian had no intention of accepting federalism, even if Ranil could have persuaded the South to swallow it (and considering he organized the boycott of Chandrika’s reforms in 99 he would have had a hard job explaining the volte-face).

And yes the war was a disaster, and Lanka would have been better continuing with the defacto Cyprus like parrtition that the peace process had rapidly degenerated into, but you can hardly blame Mahinda because the LTTE restarted it.

Ranil and Solheim’s peace process had to become a ridiculous failure before any of the international players could be convinced that war was the last best and only option. This is why after losing the election Rajapakse waited a year, enduring a string of violations attacks assassinations and provocations before launching the offensive that destroyed the LTTE. Ranil cannot be blamed for that, though he is and the UNP is paying a dear political price for that perception.

The military triumph also does not change the fact that the 2002 political solution of federalism is the best way of permanently silencing Tamil terrorism and calls for Eelam and convincing the Tamils that the Sinhalese are magnanimous people. The war has also seriously eroded Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic stability and its reputation among its main trading partners and benefactors.

More importantly it may be have ended in unnecessary humanitarian tragedy whose principal actors may yet be called to account for crimes against humanity. The coming months will determine what legacy all those bombed shelled and starved lives and families will have for real peace.

“Plenty of people don�t vote for the SLFP because they are enamored of Mahinda; they vote for it because the alternative is a joke.”

I think rather than looking for individuals on either side of the political spectrum to blame, the fault lies with a rotten (poltical) culture that produces rotten politicians. Sri Lanka needs culture change. The circular paradox is that culture change requires those individuals to create change. Is Mahinda that figure? Why am I cynical?

As for the census, let us not quibble over numbers you or I do not have access to or classifications of Tamils.

Yes we do; they’re two clicks away.

You’re correct about how Mahinda would never have been able to defeat the LTTE without the previous work of Ranil (though sincere is never a word I would have applied to him; you appear to be forgetting it was he who sabotaged Tiruchelvan’s plan for devolution to the Tamils). Paradoxically Prabakharian destroyed himself because he couldn’t handle peace. It was the ceasefire that resulted in Karuna’s defection, which was by a long shot the greatest cause of the LTTE’s defeat, and it was the LTTE’s bad faith in the peace process that gave the Lankan government international support. All the international goodwill the Lankan government had in 2005, as a result of Chandrika, Ranil and Kadirgamar, has now evaporated, but as India doesn’t have any intention of invading that is irrelevant.

Solheim’s and Ranil’s ‘peace process’ had been shown to be a ridiculous failure by 2005. By sticking to it, apparently as late as only a few months ago according to you, Ranil lost all credibility. At present he is the main reason Mahinda will win any election. Plenty of people don’t vote for the SLFP because they are enamored of Mahinda; they vote for it because the alternative is a joke.

The Uncle in the Uncle-Nephew Party has long gone and is rotting in hell. But we are stuck with the nephew, and the way things are going the UNP is going to lose the P for Party as well as the U, and all it will have left is the nephew.

Jonesey my dear, you need to move beyond this false dichotomy of winners and losers mentality in comparing Ranil vs Mahinda’s approach to the Tigers. The International community would never have lent the financial and diplomatic support that proved crucial to defeating the LTTE last week, unless there was a sincere effort by a government to find a negotiated settlement. Rewind to 1987 when, after JR’s insincere, procrastinant negotiations in the APRC and with the militants at Thimpu led to the complete thwartment of his military strategy after India intervened with their infamous Paripuu drops.

If Mahinda had started a military campaign without a sincere diplomatic venture the IC would have ended it in outcry, condemnation, intervention and possible sanctions. Ranil’s diplomacy and Mahinda’s militarism are two sides of the same coin. The former had to precede the latter. To label Ranil a “loser” is unfair, shortsighted and overly hysterical. Let us also not forget which party held the Presidency ipso facto the Defence portfolio and with it, a share of responsibility for ensuring the security of Tamil leaders killed by the LTTE during the ceasefire.

Let me also say from all the dinner parties I attend in Colombo 7, NO-ONE in the business community wanted to see anything but lasting peace. No-one except those perhaps in the biggest business of war.

I think only a simpleton (or a Rajapakse war sycophant) couldn’t see that this trip is designed to give an account of democracy’s decline in Sri Lanka to the only friends who can bring the present regime to heel after its human rights abuses both in the South and the North. At a time like this it is an important valid maneuver.

As for the census, let us not quibble over numbers you or I do not have access to or classifications of Tamils. The point is clear there has been a major demographic marginalisation relative to other groups in SL, come of that what may including perhaps bitter diaspora.

I am not a provoker or a hecker, but may be mistaken; I see the mistakes on both sides and I do not cover up any.

It’s a make or break point in Lankan politics and the leader of the opposition is thousands of miles away meeting the unknown mayor of some middle-sized nondescript city whilst campaigning in a foreign country for a complete unknown in an election nobody in that country gives a damm about.

Ranil is perhaps not that figure (more like John Kerry in ”04), but beyond the tired half-baked cliches and lies about his supposed weakness, unelectability, growing LTTE power during the Ceasefire etc etc, I believe there was a genuine attempt by the UNP to break with the politics of the past in SL. The political future of Sri Lanka will have to draw on those traditions.

Rubbish. It was Ranil who blocked Tiruchelvan’s constitutional reforms. He didn’t wish for a break. The ceasefire was negotiated because his business backers were losing money. Once they were back to making money again he didn’t give a piss about the fact that the LTTE was using its new found access to government areas to murder all the moderate Tamil opposition there. There was an unwritten agreement that as long as the LTTE stuck to murdering Tamils the GOSL would not rock the boat.

Jonesey, I would also suggest you read the census again. The 5% all island figure is an accurate enumeration that compensated for the fact the Wanni population was less accessibile to demographers.

Hopeless aren’t you. All you have to do is type ‘Sri Lankan Census 2001′ into Google and click the first entry you see. The ‘Sri Lankan Tamils’ enumerated made up 4.37% of the census. You will also see this information:
In Jaffna, Mullaitivu and Kilinochchi districts, no enumeration was done. * In Mannar District, out of 5 D.S. Divisions only one was enumerated partially. In Vavuniya District, out of 4 D.S. Divisions, one was enumerated completly and 2 were enumerated partially. In Batticaloa District, out of 12 D.S. Divisions, 5 were enumerated completely and 6 were enumerated partially. In Trincomalee District, out of 11 D.S. Divisions, 7 were enumerated completely and two were enumerated partially. The data are not included for these districts due to incomplete enumeration.

The Sri Lankan census department issued the figures without giving any estimation for the districts not enumerated (a very foolish decision in my opinion that has resulted in numerous international sources quoting the 4.37% as the real figure). The estimated population of Jaffna for 2001 is 541,000 nearly all of whom are Sri Lankan Tamils and would need adding to the census figure of 738,000 and that is before one adds the nin-enumerated Tamils in Wanni, Muttur, Batticaloa, and Trincomalee.

This is what LTEE leader wanted to do in Sri Lanka. His business model is to exploit innocent Tamils to achieve his goal of eternal leadership for his clan. For LTEE he is still alive to exploit the innocent. What a covered not to take his pill but to kill the people who went ahead of him.